Why The 76ers Plan Isn't About Losing

The 76ers Plan: "Don't be good, be great"

The jokes flew Thursday night as the Philadelphia 76ers picked Joel Embiid at number three and Dario Saric at number ten in the 2014 NBA Draft. Embiid is a 7-foot center out of Kansas who has drawn comparisons to Hakeem Olojuwan. Saric was the best European player in the draft and many think he could be one of the top 3 players in this draft when it's all said and done. Seems smart, right?

So why the jokes? Neither player will play this season. Saric won't even be in the United States. He just signed a new deal with his Turkish League team that not only will keep him away this year, but the next year as well. Embiid has a broken navicular bone in his foot, an injury that has crippled more than a few big men over the years. It is highly unlikely he plays this season. 

So the worst team in the league had two picks in the top 10 and took two guys who won't play this year. And it was absolutely the right thing to do.

There is no one in the draft that could make the Sixers remotely competitive this upcoming season. That includes Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker who came off the board before Philly was on the clock at number three. In fact the only way the Sixers win anything next year is if LeBron likes he has an irrational love of cheesesteaks. However the Sixers brass has figured out what the rest of the league either refuses to acknowledge or is scared to: there is no point in being on the upper echelon of terrible.

With that knowledge in mind, the Sixers moved to the next step of their plan which was to aim as high as possible when they are ready to be good.

The NBA is the ultimate star driven league. You can make the playoffs without a superstar, but your'e not winning a championship without one. It's happened once since 1980 and that was a 2004 Pistons team that started 5 all-star caliber players in the primes of their careers in the absence of one of the league's best players. Not exactly a bunch of bums. The Sixers know they need stars, so they've drafted guys with the highest upside possible, no matter their floor.

It started last year with Nerlens Noel. He was coming off a torn ACL and didn't play all of last season, but in the worst draft in over a decade, why not take a player with the potential to be one of the best rim protectors in the league? They struck again at #11 with Michael Carter-Williams, a 6'6" point guard with loads of raw skill and a killer instinct. He was raw, but he turned into the rookie of the year (not something to brag heavily about in that rookie class, but something nonetheless). 

That brings us to Thursday where they took Embiid and Saric. If Embiid gets healthy, his unquestioned best case scenario is hall of fame center who plays both ends of the court in a dominant fashion. Talk about a high ceiling. Saric is a very skilled offensive player who makes plays for himself and others. He's not a great defender but on a team with Embiid, Carter-Williams and Noel that shouldn't be a problem. The Sixers also took high upside guys in the 2nd round including Jerami Grant, Carter-Williams teammate at Syracuse who would've been a lottery pick in many drafts with his elite athleticism and KJ McDaniels, a hyper athletic forward out of Clemson who could be a defensive stopper for years to come. They also took a few more European "draft-and-stash" players who they hope will develop into something in the future.

Of course it could all go wrong and in the short term, it's pretty brutal for the fan base. The team they put on the floor I'm not entirely sure could beat some of the all-time great college teams because it included guys who just weren't NBA players. In order to have a shot at the best talent, you have to be really bad and the Sixers took being really bad really seriously.

Long term, Carter-Williams could be soured by all the losing in the short term, develop bad habits and leave Philadelphia to try and reclaim his career. Noel and Embiid could have injury problems or just never be the same players. Saric could decide to stay Europe longer than expected and throw the timing of the whole plan off. There are possibilities in between too, but the Sixers have given themselves a chance.

Few organizations have the patience to do what Philadelphia is doing, but they're doing it right. They know they're not going to be good, so why try to be mediocre? Give yourself the best chance possible to great. That involves multiple shots at getting elite players which means being as bad as possible a few times, and more importantly swinging for the fences on draft picks. They've swung. Come back in three years and let's see if they've made contact.

Other Notes:

The Top - Congrats Cleveland!! You didn't eff it up! The Cavaliers got the player that best fits them, wants to be there and has been thought to be the best prospect in this draft for three years. Clearly the trade for Aaron Afflalo, the number four and number twelve picks was never on the table because there's no way in hell Orlando trades Afflalo for Evan Fournier and a 2nd rounder when they could've gotten #1. In hindsight for Cleveland if they wanted Embiid, that worked out because he wouldn't have been there. Which leads us to...

Things I like

I love what Orlando wound up doing at number four. They add Aaron Gordon there and Eflrid Payton at number ten (via trade with Philadelphia for Saric) to last year's first rounder Victor Oladipo and they're gonna be terrifying defensively if still together in a few years. I don't know how they score outside of transition but good luck scoring on them. I know a lot of Magic fans wanted Dante Exum, but if they now have a terrific base to build around.

My favorite draft of the night was the Celtics. Boston got Marcus Smart, which allows them to eventually trade Rajon Rondo after Smart learns the tricks of the trade from him, and then stole James Young at 17. Opposing point guards are going to hate playing the Celtics. The worst defender you might see all night is Rondo. Smart and Avery Bradley both need to become better shooters if they Celtics are going to win big with them as a backcourt, but they're going to be sensational defensively. Young has every raw skill you want and will get better in Boston under Brad Stevens.

The Bulls got a shooter and cleared cap space. Every bit of cap space is critical in the pursuit of Carmelo Anthony, but even if they don't get him they made their team better.

I liked what a lot of teams did which is kinda the point. It was hard to screw up last night because there were so many options both in players and trades. If you couldn't get what you reasonably wanted, you probably shouldn't have a GM job.

Things I don't like:

The Thunder were one of two teams where I went "what the hell are you doing?" Mitch McGary is a top 10 pick last year, a lottery pick this year if not for injury. That said, they passed on guys who can start for them this year and provide shooting where they DESPERATELY need it in favor of him. Why not draft PJ Hairston? He's their starting two-gaurd next year. Without question. So is Rodney Hood. At best McGary is a backup for Ibaka and Steven Adams. I guess they have Jeremy Lamb, but they still tons more shooting. Fisher's gone. And they were playing Derek freaking Fisher.

The other was the Raptors. When they selected Bruno Caboclo the universal "wtf?" was loud and in unison. Apparently they feared he'd be gone at 37 when they came around again so they took him at 20. ESPN's Fran Fraschilla said on the telecast "he's two years away from being two years away." Well then if someone wants to take him, go right ahead. They must REALLY like him. It's the ultimate upside pick. Maybe Raptors GM Masai Ujiri knows something we all don't. It wouldn't be the first time. However the value they go seemed to be terrible so no matter how good the pick is, it doesn't make sense that they wouldn't trade back at least a few spots. 

The Mavs traded both of their picks to the Knicks in the Tyson Chandler deal. The first pick turned into Cleanthony Early who could've been the backup small forward last year as an upgrade over Jae Crowder. I knew I didn't like those picks being in that trade.

On To Free Agency

Free Agency is going to be absolute madness. Look forward to it. Tomorrow I'll post on how the Mavs can take advantage of teams who are big game hunting. Until then, tweet your thoughts on this column to me @craighoffman and if you liked it, share it with a friend. Thanks for reading and check back tomorrow.

Emptying the March Madness Notebook

As I watched games on TV and in person last week in San Antonio, I kept notes on things far and wide. There were x's and o's notes. There were notes on players, teams and coaches. There were notes (and pictures!) about mascots. This week has been nuts, but before we get to games tonight, it's time to empty the notebook.

Sights and Sounds

After the round of 64, I caught up with two winning point guards: Baylor's Kenny Cherry and Creighton's Austin Chatman. They faced off in the round of 32, a huge Baylor win. After that game I spent a few minutes with Baylor's Cory Jefferson.

When I took this picture, I didn't realize how good it was. It was just a quick snap. However I accidentally framed the picture with the Canadian flag in the top corner. Melvin Ejim is Canadian. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

Seriously. What the hell is this? This is not okay. (It's Providence's mascot. It shouldn't be.)

Teams no longer with us

I was sitting with my friend and fellow Syracuse alum Mike Meltser Sunday night when I decided to finally run the numbers I've been curious about. I knew Trevor Cooney was shooting about 31% in conference. That's awful, but it gets worse.

In the Notre Dame game, Cooney went 9-12 from three. If you take out that game, Trevor Cooney shot 26% in conference. Most players who shoot that much aren't allowed by their coaches to shoot from deep. Syracuse's offense was designed for Cooney to shoot threes. I'm not saying that's a mistake as Cooney's clearly a capable shooter, however this is two years in a row in which he lost his shot and never really got it back. This above all else is why Syracuse is home.

Going after Aaron Craft off the dribble was a deathwish for four years. He had the ability to dominate a game without scoring like few guards we've seen in the last decade of college basketball. Craft has some of the best hands I've ever seen and getting passed him was like trying to run around the Great Wall of China. So naturally his career ended as someone got a step on him. A week later, I still can't believe it happened. Or as my friend Gary Parrish put it:

Aaron Craft’s college career ends with him getting beat off the dribble? Cruel.
— Gary Parrish (@GaryParrishCBS) March 20, 2014

It's hard to judge how well the committee did as the tournament plays out because they aren't doing a predictive exercise. They're doing a reactive exercise to what's happened during the season. That said, BYU getting smoked by Oregon proved they didn't belong. SMU did, but getting three more games at Moody Coliseum hasn't been so bad for the Mustangs.

What a weird situation in the Nebraska-Baylor game. The officiating, led by the notroriously horrific Karl Hess, was horrific. How Miles got thrown out was a total joke, which I’ll explain in a minute. But I’m more concerned conceptually with Miles first technical. It's really hard and a very fine line but Tim Miles was ahead of his team in being hacked off about the refs. That’s bad. It gives your team an excuse. As a coach, you’ve got to tell your guys to play through it. I talked with Kenny Cherry after the game and he said it’s 100% something they talked about once they realized how tight the whistle was. It showed. You’ve gotta stand up for your guys, but you can’t get lost in the officiating like Miles did. His guys followed. They got whacked.
When in doubt late in games, always foul and extend the game. It is absolutely brutal for the fans, but until there’s a rule change where that’s no longer the strategy down the stretch, fouling early is the right play. St. Louis was toast. They fouled. NC State missed a ton of free throws. They get back in the game. Win it in overtime. Especially when it’s 1-and-1. That’s real pressure.

Every detail matters in March. I still don't know why TJ Warren is in the game with 4 fouls when NC State had to foul. He fouled out. The Wolfpack had to try and complete the comeback without the ACC Player of the Year. That's poor coaching in my eyes.

Nobody is better out of timeouts than Bill Self. He steals points on dunks and layups, many of them lobs.  I can think of at least 3 plays yesterday and I was barely watching until the last 10 minutes. They resulted in 7 points. Kansas won by 11.

I was so lucky to be in San Antonio Friday night. I had a courtside seat to what Bryce Cotton did and Bryce Cotton deserved better. At least a chance to fling one from half court. He was the only reason they had a chance for the majority of that game and the game basically ended with the ball going off his hands out of bounds. Most of the time sports are awesome, fair and karma seems to exist. None of that happened with Cotton.

If you missed Luke Winn's piece on Wichita State in Sports Illustrated, I highly recommend it. Link here.

NBA Draft Implications

Duke's Jabari Parker told Andy Katz that his career is incomplete, and that could affect decision on whether to return for sophomore season. It’s easy to say that because it’s true, but it probably won't affect it enough to come back when he’s a lock to be a top 3 pick.
That said, don't be surprised when one player does exactly that. I know for a fact that Embiid saying he hasn't made up his mind isn't lip service because he's telling people privately he hasn't made up his mind. Embiid doesn't feel ready to leave school. College is about more than just your development in sport and Embiid realizes that. He's barely spent any time in the United States and he's said all year he just doesn't feel ready to be on his own out of the college structure. It's very similar to what Marcus Smart felt last year.
That was a bad end for Andrew Wiggins but don't overreact to it. He played all year with mediocre guards and someone getting you the ball matters. They were particularly brutal Sunday outside of Connor Frankamp hitting shots to keep KU alive. That said, the more concerning number is six, not four. Six is the number of shots he took. Four is the number of points he scored. Be more assertive. Then again that goes back in part to the guards. Wiggins defensive level is outrageous for a college freshman. That, plus a high amount of offensive raw skill is why he's a top 3 pick.
He also cares. He took every ounce of blame after that loss. That matters to me too. To me, he's a guy who's very coachable and can learn. He wanted to get better. He did. My only concern with Wiggins makeup is his shyness. The pressure is going to be there. He's gotta be able to deal with it. That said, it's a minor concern. He turned 19 a month ago. He's still so young. He'll grow up and mature and likely will be fine.

Tyler Ennis leaving Syracuse isn't surprising at all. Ennis's stock skyrocketed this year as he was unimaginably good in clutch situations through 25 games. The miracle shot against Pitt was a fun highlight, but he didn't turn the ball over in a clutch spot through 25 games. That's unreal for a freshman. Yes, he struggled in a few games late but that level wasn't sustainable. His appeal to NBA scouts is in his control. He understand pace. He has a deft touch around the rim. His game isn't reliant on athleticism, meaning the jump in athleticism from college to the NBA isn't the end of his effectiveness. He'll be in the lottery, perhaps even the top 10.
In Summary
I asked Dana O'Neill Saturday if that was the best first two days of the tournament we've ever seen. She said she couldn't think of a start of a tournament that was better. Then we got more amazing games Saturday and Sunday. It all starts up again tonight. All hail March and all its madness.

Kentucky vs Wichita State - Where Narratives Went To Die

As Duke, Kansas and Syracuse fell the narrative was growing. The 2012 Kentucky team led by freshmen Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was the exception, not the rule. You couldn't win with one-and-done players. Even that team had a senior leader in Darius Miller. Carmelo Anthony had veterans around him in 2003 too. It just can't be done.

Down went Jabari Parker and Duke. Down went Andrew Wiggins and Kansas.

Julius Randle was next. His Kentucky squad was matched up against a veteran Wichita State team that hadn't lost since they took one too many punches from Louisville in last year's Final Four.

Wichita State pulled ahead early, executing their gameplan to perfection. I, and many others, thought they would win. Kentucky hadn't played smart basketball all year. Kentucky hadn't played together all year. They had 10 good minutes against Florida in the SEC Championship and that's it.

They picked a pretty good time to start. The Harrison twins played their best game all season. Randle was dominant in stretches. The game was played at a level rarely seen in college hoops. Pressure? Instead of folding, both teams rose. Cleanthony Early couldn't miss. The Kentucky freshmen were money from the free throw line down the stretch.

With all that said, the narrative had a chance to play out. The pressure to execute is never greater than a last second inbounds play. As Luke Winn from Sports Illustrated revealed in this brilliant piece, the play was called "Havlicek" and the number one option was a lob to Cleanthony Early.

Here is a freeze frame as the action starts. Early is the player at the most bottom of the screen.

Things that would inhibit a lob -

1) A defender at the rim

2) A defender inhibiting Early so that he wouldn't have a clear path to the rim

3) Ball pressure making a lob difficult

4) Early getting caught up in the screening action

5) Aliens from outer space

None of these things happened.

James Young (#1 in blue) was guarding Early. He was lost. Willie Caulie-Stein (#15 in blue) is one of the best rim protectors in the country. He had no idea someone was sneaking behind him and it looked like protecting the rim wasn't his assignment. He had a man he was supposed to stick with. It appeared as if no one had the specific job of protecting the rim.

As it played out, Early planted his right foot at the very moment captured above and faded to the wing, out of the play. I would love to ask him or Gregg Marshall what he was reading, because watching the video and looking at the freeze frame above, it seems like he made the wrong read. The pass didn't even have to be perfect. Any where where Early could catch it leads to a layup or dunk. Instead he bailed.

Instead Kentucky shut off the 2nd option, Ron Baker (#31 in white) curling to the corner and Wichita State was left with their 3rd option. Fred Van Vleet came to the top of the key, took one rhythm dribble to his right and launched a 25 footer that missed as time expired. Game over.

As the horn sounded, the narrative died.

Talented freshmen can beat an experienced team that plays together. The key is them actually playing together. That's why Kentucky won in 2012. It's the same reason Louisville won last year. It's the same reason any team wins any year.

There is no new narrative.

Talent will always compete. Execution will always matter. When talent executes, it will win.

Sunday we didn't see talent versus execution. We saw Wichita State's talent executing as they had all year versus Kentucky's talent executing like they hadn't all year. The clock ran out while Kentucky had two more points.

A single game cannot define a season. It can end it. Wichita State is one of the ten best teams in the country and probably the best five. Their problem on Sunday is they ran into another one who finally played like it.