Random Rumblings: April 4th

I had breakfast with a good friend yesterday and he asked me how I was doing. The answer, as has been typical as of late, is "the job hunt's going slowly, but I'm really good." Those are both true. The job hunt in a super competitive industry that hasn't had a lot of movement is going slowly, but despite that I'm largely enjoying life and making the most of the free time.

As the conversation continued and he asked what I've been doing, I told him about what I've done to stay busy, including writing and podcasting. I followed that up with my usual "I really should be doing that more." My friend, who is also in the business, agreed. So I am. Starting today, there will be a post here of some type five days per week. Sometimes it'll be a short blurb. Sometimes it'll be a podcast. Sometimes it'll be a longer piece.

Unless there is one topic that deserves its own, stand-alone column, I'm going to return to the form I used when I was job-less in 2013. I'm going to just "empty the notebook." Whatever topics are on my mind, I'll comment on. Some will be the ones everyone is talking about. Some will be a little more off the beaten path. Off we go, with today's topics being on the hardwood.

The Cuse is No Longer Loose

Syracuse's miracle run through the NCAA tournament ended Saturday night when they were soundly beaten by an unquestionably better North Carolina squad. UNC is the perfect tournament team. They've got an incredible mix of talent and experience with seniors Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson leading the way. They're both incredibly talented, know how to play and are tremendous competitors.

Syracuse isn't quite there yet. They have some talent, but the best of it is young outside of senior Michael Gbinije, who carried the Orange offensively through much of the year. Malachi Richardson and Tyler Lydon weren't quite ready for the moment as freshmen. Trevor Cooney actually played one of his best games in a Syracuse uniform in the season finale, but never quite lived up to what many thought he was capable of offensively in his time at SU. The talent was too young. The experience wasn't quite at the level of UNC's talent.

That said, this run was so enjoyable because of just that. It was an imperfect team who was completely maxing out what they were capable of. While the average fan may not understand the x's and o's of execution, everyone can appreciate effort. Even the most clueless of sports observers can go "that guy is playing really hard." While yes, Cooney didn't pan out as an offensive force like many of us thought he might, he played extraordinarily hard every minute and clearly put in a lot of work based on his growth over five years on campus into a well-rounded player. The same can be said for DaJuan Coleman. The five-star prospect arrived on campus as a hometown hero from nearby Jamesville-Dewitt, but has fought injury and never been the impact player he was slated to be. He's still busted his ass to become the best he can be, and hopefully with a fifth year next year after finishing this season healthy, can be a big time producer.

Jim Boeheim says Gbinije grew more as a player in his time than any player he's ever coached. Watching that growth has been a joy as a fan. I think he's got potential, because of his size, to be a pro. He's shown he can improve and will have to extend his range to the NBA three, but he's worth a second round pick in June.

Malachi Richardson's NBA path is a different story. He's not ready yet, but likely will be after next year. He was wildly inconsistent all year and that includes his signature game of the NCAA Tournament. He started 0-7 against Virginia before erupting in the second half to lead SU to the Final Four. Richardson should follow the Dion Waiters model and wait one more year. He'll be the featured option next season and should average between 15-20 ppg. With Syracuse poised to be a very good team again next year, Richardson could wind up in the lottery.

It won't surprise me if he tests the draft waters. The NCAA changed their rules in January to allow prospects to attend the NBA combine, feel out where they'll be drafted and still return to school so long that they don't hire an agent. Richardson could, and probably should, go but he'll find he's at best a borderline first round pick. One more year should do the trick.

Is UConn's good, good?

Boston columnist Dan Shaughnessy has spouted many questionable opinions over the years, and his most recent is being called that and worse by many. Shaughnessy said that the UConn women's continued dominance is bad for women's basketball. While his initial method, a tweet that seemed to wreak of sexism, wasn't a great look, his column after expounded and brought up legitimate questions that are worth exploring.

I think the answer to the question, "Is UConn's dominance good for women's basketball?" is "yes and no." In the short-term, Shaughnessy is right for a lot of fans. As he says, competition is the essence of sports and UConn has no current competition. After beating Oregon State on Sunday night, they've won 121 of 122 games, all of them by double figures. They're the three-time defending champions and only mighty Syracuse (go Orange!) stands in their way of number four. I love Coach Q and company, but my school will be finishing in second place.

Because of that dominance, there are fans who won't watch. However there are also fans that will. I enjoy greatness immensely and watching UConn pick a part an opponent is actually enjoyable. They play basketball at an extraordinarily high level. At that point you're not watching for the competition. You're watching for the excellence.

So while the short-term concerns Shaughnessy has are at least worth considering, there's no question this is good for the game long-term. There's a generation of girls watching this team, striving to be like Breanna Stewart and Moriah Jefferson. The level of skill and creativity is on the rise in the women's game and a lot of this can be credited back to what Geno Auriemma and UConn have done. Auriemma runs NBA sets with his players and let's those players, like Stewart, Dianna Taurasi and Maya Moore showcase their skills. That will lead to more talent in the women's game and the sport will be better for it.

The bar UConn is setting will raise the sport as a whole. It already has in many ways. While UConn sits alone at the top, the other three teams in the Final Four were there for the first time. That's a great sign of the growing talent, and as more elite talent becomes available, the gap on UConn will close. Frankly, it'll close next year anyway when Stewart (who is in the discussion for best player UConn's ever had, which means she's one of the best ever anywhere) and Jefferson graduate.

Shaughnessy's initial tweet may have been very hot-takey, but his concerns were at least worth asking a few questions. Hopefully that helps answer them.

Coming Up Tomorrow

If there's a logical thing that I know I'll be writing about tomorrow, I'll preview it at the end of the blog. I'm headed to Opening Day in Baltimore, which should be a blast. Unless it rains. Baseball does pomp and circumstance better than any other sport, so I'm looking forward to the festivities.

Of course the national championship game will also be discussed. Villanova is playing outstanding basketball, but I'm taking North Carolina. That and more tomorrow!

Emptying the March Madness Notebook

As I watched games on TV and in person last week in San Antonio, I kept notes on things far and wide. There were x's and o's notes. There were notes on players, teams and coaches. There were notes (and pictures!) about mascots. This week has been nuts, but before we get to games tonight, it's time to empty the notebook.

Sights and Sounds

After the round of 64, I caught up with two winning point guards: Baylor's Kenny Cherry and Creighton's Austin Chatman. They faced off in the round of 32, a huge Baylor win. After that game I spent a few minutes with Baylor's Cory Jefferson.

When I took this picture, I didn't realize how good it was. It was just a quick snap. However I accidentally framed the picture with the Canadian flag in the top corner. Melvin Ejim is Canadian. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

Seriously. What the hell is this? This is not okay. (It's Providence's mascot. It shouldn't be.)

Teams no longer with us

I was sitting with my friend and fellow Syracuse alum Mike Meltser Sunday night when I decided to finally run the numbers I've been curious about. I knew Trevor Cooney was shooting about 31% in conference. That's awful, but it gets worse.

In the Notre Dame game, Cooney went 9-12 from three. If you take out that game, Trevor Cooney shot 26% in conference. Most players who shoot that much aren't allowed by their coaches to shoot from deep. Syracuse's offense was designed for Cooney to shoot threes. I'm not saying that's a mistake as Cooney's clearly a capable shooter, however this is two years in a row in which he lost his shot and never really got it back. This above all else is why Syracuse is home.

Going after Aaron Craft off the dribble was a deathwish for four years. He had the ability to dominate a game without scoring like few guards we've seen in the last decade of college basketball. Craft has some of the best hands I've ever seen and getting passed him was like trying to run around the Great Wall of China. So naturally his career ended as someone got a step on him. A week later, I still can't believe it happened. Or as my friend Gary Parrish put it:

Aaron Craft’s college career ends with him getting beat off the dribble? Cruel.
— Gary Parrish (@GaryParrishCBS) March 20, 2014

It's hard to judge how well the committee did as the tournament plays out because they aren't doing a predictive exercise. They're doing a reactive exercise to what's happened during the season. That said, BYU getting smoked by Oregon proved they didn't belong. SMU did, but getting three more games at Moody Coliseum hasn't been so bad for the Mustangs.

What a weird situation in the Nebraska-Baylor game. The officiating, led by the notroriously horrific Karl Hess, was horrific. How Miles got thrown out was a total joke, which I’ll explain in a minute. But I’m more concerned conceptually with Miles first technical. It's really hard and a very fine line but Tim Miles was ahead of his team in being hacked off about the refs. That’s bad. It gives your team an excuse. As a coach, you’ve got to tell your guys to play through it. I talked with Kenny Cherry after the game and he said it’s 100% something they talked about once they realized how tight the whistle was. It showed. You’ve gotta stand up for your guys, but you can’t get lost in the officiating like Miles did. His guys followed. They got whacked.
When in doubt late in games, always foul and extend the game. It is absolutely brutal for the fans, but until there’s a rule change where that’s no longer the strategy down the stretch, fouling early is the right play. St. Louis was toast. They fouled. NC State missed a ton of free throws. They get back in the game. Win it in overtime. Especially when it’s 1-and-1. That’s real pressure.

Every detail matters in March. I still don't know why TJ Warren is in the game with 4 fouls when NC State had to foul. He fouled out. The Wolfpack had to try and complete the comeback without the ACC Player of the Year. That's poor coaching in my eyes.

Nobody is better out of timeouts than Bill Self. He steals points on dunks and layups, many of them lobs.  I can think of at least 3 plays yesterday and I was barely watching until the last 10 minutes. They resulted in 7 points. Kansas won by 11.

I was so lucky to be in San Antonio Friday night. I had a courtside seat to what Bryce Cotton did and Bryce Cotton deserved better. At least a chance to fling one from half court. He was the only reason they had a chance for the majority of that game and the game basically ended with the ball going off his hands out of bounds. Most of the time sports are awesome, fair and karma seems to exist. None of that happened with Cotton.

If you missed Luke Winn's piece on Wichita State in Sports Illustrated, I highly recommend it. Link here.

NBA Draft Implications

Duke's Jabari Parker told Andy Katz that his career is incomplete, and that could affect decision on whether to return for sophomore season. It’s easy to say that because it’s true, but it probably won't affect it enough to come back when he’s a lock to be a top 3 pick.
That said, don't be surprised when one player does exactly that. I know for a fact that Embiid saying he hasn't made up his mind isn't lip service because he's telling people privately he hasn't made up his mind. Embiid doesn't feel ready to leave school. College is about more than just your development in sport and Embiid realizes that. He's barely spent any time in the United States and he's said all year he just doesn't feel ready to be on his own out of the college structure. It's very similar to what Marcus Smart felt last year.
That was a bad end for Andrew Wiggins but don't overreact to it. He played all year with mediocre guards and someone getting you the ball matters. They were particularly brutal Sunday outside of Connor Frankamp hitting shots to keep KU alive. That said, the more concerning number is six, not four. Six is the number of shots he took. Four is the number of points he scored. Be more assertive. Then again that goes back in part to the guards. Wiggins defensive level is outrageous for a college freshman. That, plus a high amount of offensive raw skill is why he's a top 3 pick.
He also cares. He took every ounce of blame after that loss. That matters to me too. To me, he's a guy who's very coachable and can learn. He wanted to get better. He did. My only concern with Wiggins makeup is his shyness. The pressure is going to be there. He's gotta be able to deal with it. That said, it's a minor concern. He turned 19 a month ago. He's still so young. He'll grow up and mature and likely will be fine.

Tyler Ennis leaving Syracuse isn't surprising at all. Ennis's stock skyrocketed this year as he was unimaginably good in clutch situations through 25 games. The miracle shot against Pitt was a fun highlight, but he didn't turn the ball over in a clutch spot through 25 games. That's unreal for a freshman. Yes, he struggled in a few games late but that level wasn't sustainable. His appeal to NBA scouts is in his control. He understand pace. He has a deft touch around the rim. His game isn't reliant on athleticism, meaning the jump in athleticism from college to the NBA isn't the end of his effectiveness. He'll be in the lottery, perhaps even the top 10.
In Summary
I asked Dana O'Neill Saturday if that was the best first two days of the tournament we've ever seen. She said she couldn't think of a start of a tournament that was better. Then we got more amazing games Saturday and Sunday. It all starts up again tonight. All hail March and all its madness.

Weekend Rewind - 1/28/13

Down goes Cuse

Syracuse is 1-2 against the city of Philadelphia this season and undefeated against everyone else. The good news? No more games against teams from Philly until at least the Big East Tournament. So that's nice.

SU lost Saturday thanks to a number of factors, most of which have and will continue to be discussed. For starters, SU didn't foul up 3 in the final seconds allowing Ryan Arcidiacono to hit a miracle shot and force overtime. At this point it's not even an argument of whether that's sound strategy as the numbers scream that it is. Jim Boeheim agrees, so why didn't he?

The reason is there wasn't really a spot to. Villanova got the ball up the court, took a terrible shot, missed and then got the offensive rebound. If you're going to make the foul argument, that would've been the spot to do it - before the Cats were able to get the ball back out. You'd never coach your team to do that though, so it would have taken an individual player taking that initiative and in that spot that's an absurd thing to ask. Instead you play defense and hope for the best. Arcidiacono hit an incredibly difficult shot. It happens.

Where Boeheim is perhaps more at fault is how he handled his rotation down the stretch that resulted in Baye Moussa-Keita and Jerami Grant being unavailable in the final minutes after fouling out. There's a school of thought that says "they're going to play a certain number of minutes, so let em play" and that's basically what Boeheim did. I'm in the other camp. See how long you can go without them and then when it's crunch time, come in for the save.

The result was Brandon Triche playing the back line and a severe lack of size that killed the Orange. While Triche is smart enough and big enough in terms of bulk to play down low, he can't protect the rim like the wings in SU's zone need to. Villanova had a few baskets right over the 6'4" guard. It mattered. A "solution" I thought of at the time and eventually threw out on Twitter yesterday was putting Michael Carter-Williams on the wing. MCW's nearly 6'7" and his length would have been an upgrade over Triche. 

The downsides though are plentiful and it's why I waffle on whether it would have actually been better. Carter-Williams would have been bullied, as Triche is massively stronger despite the lack of height. He's also excellent at the top of the zone and his ball pressure is a lot to give up. Last but not least, Triche is a four-year starter who knows the zone inside and out. There's a great chance MCW would've screwed up a few rotations. Triche was at least in the right spot every time.

The other obvious solution would have been Dajuan Coleman. The frosh has gotten the authentic highly recruited freshman treatment from Jim Boeheim like Fab Melo and Rakeem Christmas before him - start, play until you screw up 30 seconds in and sit on the bench for basically the rest of the game. Literally as I'm typing this, I (and everyone else who's ever covered SU) got an email saying Coleman's having knee surgery so maybe he wasn't an option after all but the larger problem still remains. For as awesome as the zone is, it's limiting in what you can do with a lineup. 

All of the other problems people scream about with Boeheim's 2-3 only mentality don't bother me. SU plays the 2-3 so well and morphs it so many ways, that they can cover a hot shooter. In late game situations, you might not be able to "lock down" on the guy with the ball, but you've eliminated so many plays that only work against man-to-man it's at least even if not an advantage for SU. That said, the option not to play 3 guards drives me insane. Last year, a lineup with Scoop Jardine, Brandon Triche and Dion Waiters could've put up some serious numbers and caused other coaches nightmares. It barely ever happened because of the defensive implications meaning one of your best players always had to be on the bench.

This season's team breaks down differently as Trevor Cooney has been a massive disappointment. He'll have a fine career (I think), but it's been quite frankly astonishing how pathetic he's been shooting considering in warm-ups he can't miss. He can't play game speeds yet. 

James Southerland's return is, in a word, necessary. Boeheim has no problem playing 6 guys and at this point that's all he's got. Cooney's sole purpose is to give MCW and Triche a blow. Christmas, Moussa-Keita, C.J. Fair, Grant, Triche and Carter-Williams are the only guys that should see regular minutes. Winning a title with 6 guys isn't impossible but it's unlikely because if one guy gets in foul trouble you're in deep doo doo. If two are stuck, Saturday happens. With Southerland available, I'm not writing any of this.

You can't fault Boeheim for a lack of depth either. An eight man rotation is ideal and if Cooney doesn't flop and Southerland is eligible, that's what he's got thanks to Grant's stellar play. Outside of Coleman, there's not really another guy on the roster who you realistically wish got more run. The problem with Coleman is playing him moves Rak Christmas to a wing where he's dramatically worse as a defender or to the bench where he's...well...on the bench. Playing those two together slaughters your floor spacing on offense as well as both are useless outside the paint. Again, Southerland coming back solves all problems.

Down goes Rondo

The NBA world was shocked when we all found out Rajon Rondo is out for the year with a torn ACL. Immediately the "blow up the Celtics" talk began and I just don't know how realistic that is. Tomorrow I'll be doing a podcast so I'll save the bulk of my thoughts for that, but the question here to ponder is what was the goal of the Celtics this season? Did they really think they could win a title or did they want to stay relevant? Whatever that answer is frames the rest of the conversation.

Up go the Lakers

I reserve the right to change my mind by the end of the week, but I actually think this Lakers thing is going to work. I said in a previous post that if the Lakers played pickup ball they'd be better off than Mike D'Antoni's stupid system. Turns out, that's basically what they've done. The biggest question remaining is will Kobe be happy playing distributer. 

To quote Bryant: "We finally beat a team that's worth a s---" so he knows that playing that way works. J.A. Adande had a fascinating read on how every single one of the Lakers stars has changed how they've played their entire careers to make things work in the past week. To maintain that will be very difficult. When you've been successful, changing from what got you there is damn near impossible. However if the Lakers keep winning, this can work. Maybe I'm overreacting to two games, but I'll say the Lakers make the playoffs. The reason - if they keep playing, it's not a question of whether or not it will work. It will. The only question is will they continue to do it? To be determined…