Emptying the Notebook: Elite 8

What the hell just happened? Was last night real? The early games looked like they were both going to be blowouts and all of a sudden chaos down the stretch. Iowa State ran out of time. Tennessee they were out of time too. Until Michigan gave them time back. Inbound the ball and make a free throw or two and you win 100% guaranteed. They couldn’t inbound the ball! That game largely was sealed on a questionable call. Twitter freaked out. Twitter was wrong. That's all below.

Then we got to the night games.

Holy cow the night games! The only thing wrong with them is they were going on at the same time. They were different and both great for very different reasons. I thought Doug Gottlieb said it perfectly afterwards - the Virginia/Michigan State game was this technical clinic of back and forth between two senior laden teams with no real history, but both a desire to execute and win. The Louisville-Kentucky game was a little, to use Doug’s word, erratic at times (and that’s a great word for it) but the compete level in that game was off the charts. Those two teams played so hard. They don’t like each other. There is history. That was incredible.

Baylor vs Wisconsin

In hindsight, we should’ve seen the Baylor-Wisconsin result coming. In order to beat a zone you have to be patient. It’s one thing to go in with that mindset, but to sustain it for 40 minutes, possession in and possession out is a whole different story. That’s how Wisconsin plays every night. It wasn’t even a thought for them. Move the ball. Find a good shot. That’s how they would describe their play no matter what. Perfect matchup.

That’s only half the battle though. The other part is having versatile size and multiple decision makers as the talent to execute that plan. Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker are absolutely that. They’re tall guys who can shoot it from the outside, over the top of the zone and put the ball on the floor with the length and athleticism to finish over and around the length of Baylor.

The way to beat Wisconsin is to speed them up. It’s exactly what Oregon did in the first half. The pressured and forced a few turnovers. It led to 19 fast break points for the Ducks in the first half. The second half? They had none. Zero. Zilch. The game became a half-court game and Wisconsin came back and won.

Baylor never got the transition game started. The entire game was dominated by Wisconsin because it was played at their pace. It was a great run by the Bears. They didn’t have a shot. And we should’ve seen it coming.

Stanford vs Dayton

Didn't watch a ton of this game because by the time I got home, Dayton had already started pulling away. It was simple. Stanford's deep. Stanford got into foul trouble. Stanford was screwed. Dayton's a veteran team that executes. You've got to beat them. Florida will.

Florida vs UCLA

Experience can be really overrated. In the end there is a requisite level of talent, skill and know how required to do any task and there is no set amount of time that says someone will have those things. People learn and develop at different rates. So why does experience matter?

The more experience you have, the more situations you've seen and if you've encountered a situation before, you're more likely to react properly. That’s Florida. They’ve seen everything. You’re going to have to out-execute them with better talent and they haven’t played a team capable of doing that yet. Kentucky got close in the SEC Tournament final because they do have superior raw talent. 

Kentucky could beat them. Michigan State could beat them. But them getting to the Final Four was basically a lock when Syracuse and Kansas lost. Dayton’s had a great run. The most shocking result of the tournament would be the Gators going down this afternoon.

San Diego State vs Arizona

Aaron Gordon was more impactful Saturday than any other game I’ve seen him play this year. I’ll fully admit I haven’t watched as much as Arizona as I would’ve liked, but it wasn’t even close. He’s an incredibly raw offensive player who thrives in transition, but he did more than that Thursday night. He had some enormous offensive rebounds and some tough, contested rebounds on the defensive end. He hit some threes. But he still had some of those transition plays and those are huge because they give you energy. That alley-oop he threw down? You know the one! There may be ten guys in America that can go get that ball. That was ridiculous, and the energy of that play helped swing the game.

A huge reason it needed to be swung was because Nick Johnson was terrible for about 36 minutes. There's something to be said for a guy keeping his confidence despite struggle, but there's also a time to know your struggling and a stand still three from three feet behind the line isn't what you were looking for with plenty of time on the shot clock. Johnson gets credit for keeping the faith in himself and coming up huge down the stretch, but if they had lost some of the bad shots he took would have been a huge reason why. That's the ups and the downs of the sport when played by 18-22 year olds.

Tennessee vs Michigan

Let's just fast-forward to the end of this game because that's what mattered. Michigan was dominant early and Cuonzo Martin must've given one hell of a halftime speech.

Late in the game Michigan was trying to kill time so they ran 20 seconds off the shot clock before calling timeout and setting up a multiple action set. In the NBA they have 4 seconds. College? 15. The shot clock is too damn long. By the way - they didn’t get a shot off because of tremendous defense by Tennessee on both ends of the play. On the backend there was the terrific shot block after a pump fake, but the play was made by ball denial on Nik Stauskus. That wasn’t Michigan’s first option.

So Tennessee had life. Then Michigan gave them super life. Getting the ball inbounds shouldn’t be that hard. Sure, you’ve gotta fight but if you execute, you can get the ball in bounds to a person that’s not falling out of bounds!! That turnover is completely inexcusable. Albrecht's gotta do a better job of running the baseline and Lavert has to be under control. Those are the details of execution that separate in big games.

Tennessee gets the ball, calls an iso for Jarnell Stokes. He took one dribble into the lane and Jordan Morgan cut him off. You lower your shoulder, you get called for a charge. I’m the most anti-charge person on earth. I’d like a no-call there, but if a call was to be made it was a charge.

It's important to clarify that Morgan doesn't have to set his feet. In college, the primary defender is allowed to move laterally and as long he is in legal guarding position (Morgan was), he can take a charge. He did. He kinda flopped as he did, but he did. For all the bad calls and bad officiating, I'll save my outrage for another call.

With all that said - Lavert knocked the ball out clean and chased it down. We're probably yelling about nothing because it definitely wasn't a block. It was a charge or a no call and a no call meant a steal. It’s a chance to yell at refs, so people will. It’s a chance for people to point out NCAA officiating stinks. It does. That said, we’re probably making too much about nothing.

Iowa State vs UConn

Iowa state immediately tried to go inside and exploit their size advantage with Uconn's guards in the post. Syracuse used this strategy a couple of years ago with Dion Waiters, Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine and beat UConn with it twice. Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright were younger than. They learned. They also had help and UConn's size at every other position made life miserable for the Cyclones inside (except for Dustin Hogue, who gets some love below). 

Invoking Kemba comparisons aren’t done lightly, but Shabazz Napier is 100% earning that label. He’s been dominant so far and to do that as a sub 6 foot guard is ridiculous. It means you’re doing it with all skill. You’re not physically overpowering anyone at that size. It’s all speed, quickness, technical skill and having supreme confidence in what you’re doing. He stared down a 24 year old grown man. Deandre Kane is older than James Harden and he’s a grown man at 6 foot 4. Napier didn’t care. He balled out. He was a freshman for Kemba. As a senior, it’s him at the center of an equally as unprecedented run.

If Deandre Daniels plays well, there’s not many teams that can beat UConn. The junior has always had super potential, but had never developed. He had games here and there, but has been far more consistent as of late. He's not gonna drop 27 on a regular basis, but if he can play at a high level, UConn can hang with Michigan State tomorrow.

In March we talk about teams playing smart and playing together. It's worth mentioning this UConn group stayed after they were banned from the post-season (thanks to APR, which is one of the bigger crocks the NCAA pulls) so playing for each other is nothing new. That's all they had to play for. 

Last but not least, some love for Dustin Hogue. I covered his brother, Doug, at Syracuse where he was a linebacker on Doug Marrone's first Pinstripe Bowl winning team. The Hogues are from Yonkers and when I talked with Dustin in San Antonio after Iowa State's win over North Carolina, he couldn't wait to go home. For a New York City kid, there's nothing like playing in Madison Square Garden and he left every bit of his heart and soul on the Garden floor. MSG brings out the best and that was certainly his best, albeit in a losing effort and he got to do it in his own backyard in front of family and friends. Pretty cool.

Louisville vs Kentucky

12:31 in the 2nd half and Louisville starts to go on a run. John Calipari calls timeout. When Louisville gets going, no one can stop them, nevertheless a team that's at times mentally fragile. UK responded with a run.

This happened a few times throughout the game, which again confirmed what most in basketball know and those that just think he's a good recruiter refuse to acknowledge. Cal can flat out coach. From modifying his x's and o's to the new talent he brings in each year to having a great pulse for his players, Cal can flat out coach. This year, it took a lot longer for him to find that pulse but he's seemed to figure it out.

That allows him to unlock the immense talent he does bring in, which separates Kentucky from other schools. They just have so many guys. Willie Caulie-Stein leaves with an injury? Fine. Dakari Johnson was playing like a man possessed. He was all over the offensive glass. He's also a legit NBA prospect coming off their bench.

Another step in Kentucky's sudden discovery that they're good is the evolution of Julius Randle. His vision is terrific. I noticed it in the Baylor game at AT&T Stadium early in the year. Last night that vision turned into production as he had the assist on Andrew Harrison's game winner. He’s also evolved defensively. Cal could barely play him at the beginning of the year because he was so putrid against the pick and roll. Last night, Randle had two perfect defensive possessions, one of which he got called for a bogus foul and the other in which he challenged Russ Smith’s game-tying attempt, which fell short because he out to arc it over the freshman’s outstretched arm.

Last few notes:

• For the 2nd straight game, UK's freshman acted like anything but down the stretch. They were total money from the free throw line including two from Randle late.
• That was Rick Pitino's first ever loss in the Sweet 16. He's been coaching for 30+ years at three different schools. That's absurd.
• Since Calipari got to UK, he's owned Pitino. They've met in the tournament twice including last night. The other was the 2012 National Championship game.
• I still don't know what to make of Kentucky, but this number makes me belive they're legit. Vegas knows things. UK was 30-1 to win it all on March 10th. They're now 5-1.

Virginia vs Michigan State

This game is the one high school coaches will show their teams. It was a clinic. Great defense forced good execution if you wanted a good shot and there weren't a ton to be had. This game came down to the end though and a decision Tom Izzo made that I loved.

Adreian Payne made a mistake. The senior had a look at a three and he decided to give it up trying to get a better shot. It was too late in the shot clock. Virginia scrambled perfectly and forced a turnover and hit a three to tie the game on the ensuing possession. Timeout Michigan State.

Izzo lit into Payne. When every possession matters, you can't pass up a good shot. He then drew up a play for him and he responded by draining a three pointer. The next possession he threw a lob to Brandon Dawson. He later knocked down two free throws. Payne's an NBA player and could've easily left after last year. He's back to win it.

The Zebras vs The World 

There were some awful calls in the last two days. Luckily most of them didn't wind up changing the outcomes of games but there was a possibility of one in nearly every game. I discussed the charge call in Michigan/Tennessee already. There as a no-call at the end of Michigan State/Virginia that UVA fans didn't like. Michigan State's player pushed off, but it was after a Virginia hold. I'm fine with the no call. If they call the first foul, the second one never happens.

Kentucky would've had a real gripe if they lost as Julius Randle had a textbook block called a foul. Verticality needs to be given to bigs. Randle went straight up. If an offensive player jumps into you, that's on him.

My biggest gripe however was replay. To me, replay is designed to fix the obvious. If you can't tell whether a call was right or not, stay with the original. If it's obvious it needs to change, change it. If a ball goes out of bounds and you can't tell who it was out on, call it a jump ball. The end of these games are disastrous. Referees are taking way too long to look at replays where there's either an obvious call or obviously no chance of making a determination. If you can get it right, get it right. If you discover you're not going to be able to do anything, just walk away and get back to the game. Flow and rhythm matter in basketball. Quite destroying it.

SMU in the NIT

If you are in the Dallas area and weren’t at Moody Coliseum Wednesday night, you missed out. I’ve been to a lot of games in a lot of places. Allen Fieldhouse is in a galaxy by itself. Outside of that place, I’ve never been in a place better than Moody on Wednesday. Some equal. None better. Nick Russell had an enormous play in that game and the SMU guard joined me on ESPN Dallas College Gameday.

Kentucky vs Wichita State - Where Narratives Went To Die

As Duke, Kansas and Syracuse fell the narrative was growing. The 2012 Kentucky team led by freshmen Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was the exception, not the rule. You couldn't win with one-and-done players. Even that team had a senior leader in Darius Miller. Carmelo Anthony had veterans around him in 2003 too. It just can't be done.

Down went Jabari Parker and Duke. Down went Andrew Wiggins and Kansas.

Julius Randle was next. His Kentucky squad was matched up against a veteran Wichita State team that hadn't lost since they took one too many punches from Louisville in last year's Final Four.

Wichita State pulled ahead early, executing their gameplan to perfection. I, and many others, thought they would win. Kentucky hadn't played smart basketball all year. Kentucky hadn't played together all year. They had 10 good minutes against Florida in the SEC Championship and that's it.

They picked a pretty good time to start. The Harrison twins played their best game all season. Randle was dominant in stretches. The game was played at a level rarely seen in college hoops. Pressure? Instead of folding, both teams rose. Cleanthony Early couldn't miss. The Kentucky freshmen were money from the free throw line down the stretch.

With all that said, the narrative had a chance to play out. The pressure to execute is never greater than a last second inbounds play. As Luke Winn from Sports Illustrated revealed in this brilliant piece, the play was called "Havlicek" and the number one option was a lob to Cleanthony Early.

Here is a freeze frame as the action starts. Early is the player at the most bottom of the screen.

Things that would inhibit a lob -

1) A defender at the rim

2) A defender inhibiting Early so that he wouldn't have a clear path to the rim

3) Ball pressure making a lob difficult

4) Early getting caught up in the screening action

5) Aliens from outer space

None of these things happened.

James Young (#1 in blue) was guarding Early. He was lost. Willie Caulie-Stein (#15 in blue) is one of the best rim protectors in the country. He had no idea someone was sneaking behind him and it looked like protecting the rim wasn't his assignment. He had a man he was supposed to stick with. It appeared as if no one had the specific job of protecting the rim.

As it played out, Early planted his right foot at the very moment captured above and faded to the wing, out of the play. I would love to ask him or Gregg Marshall what he was reading, because watching the video and looking at the freeze frame above, it seems like he made the wrong read. The pass didn't even have to be perfect. Any where where Early could catch it leads to a layup or dunk. Instead he bailed.

Instead Kentucky shut off the 2nd option, Ron Baker (#31 in white) curling to the corner and Wichita State was left with their 3rd option. Fred Van Vleet came to the top of the key, took one rhythm dribble to his right and launched a 25 footer that missed as time expired. Game over.

As the horn sounded, the narrative died.

Talented freshmen can beat an experienced team that plays together. The key is them actually playing together. That's why Kentucky won in 2012. It's the same reason Louisville won last year. It's the same reason any team wins any year.

There is no new narrative.

Talent will always compete. Execution will always matter. When talent executes, it will win.

Sunday we didn't see talent versus execution. We saw Wichita State's talent executing as they had all year versus Kentucky's talent executing like they hadn't all year. The clock ran out while Kentucky had two more points.

A single game cannot define a season. It can end it. Wichita State is one of the ten best teams in the country and probably the best five. Their problem on Sunday is they ran into another one who finally played like it.

One and done with it

Nearly everyone hates the one and done rule in college hoops. All year we've heard that it's hurt the quality of play in college basketball because there is very limited top-flight talent. That's true. While there have been an inordinate amount thrilling finishes that can be chalked up to this newfound parity, close games don't equate to good basketball. There is no better example than the 5 OT Louisville vs Notre Dame classic from Saturday night. The first 39 minutes were garbage and the overtimes weren't exactly well played despite the undeniable drama.

Now people are upset with the one and done rule for a different reason after Kentucky freshman Nerlens Noel tore his ACL Tuesday night in Florida. The projected #1 pick is out for the season and his status as the #1 pick is more than up in the air. The result is people saying that the NBA is wrong for not letting Noel and others go straight to the league from high school like they used to be able to. "The NBA is preventing them from making a living." 

First and foremost this statement is patently false. The NBA is preventing players like Noel who think they're ready to make the jump to pro ball from going to the NBA, not from making a living playing basketball. Brandon Jennings didn't want to play college basketball and he went to Italy for a year before entering the NBA Draft. He still was a lottery pick when his time came to shake David Stern's hand.

Secondly, the NBA has every right to do this, just like any other company in any other industry. Chances are if you're reading this you're not an NBA player so think of whatever industry you're in. I'll use my industry for comparison's sake and me as a specific example.

The NBA is a business, just like yours

By the time I was completing my junior year in college, I was ready to be a professional radio host. In fact, I was probably better than at least half of the hosts on stations nationwide. However without my degree, I wasn't deemed ready and in fact I would have been deemed a liability having not yet taken a media law class.

If some station had taken a chance on me, there was super potential. Not being in school and getting reps daily, I could have focused solely on my craft (some would argue I did this anyway and to hell with my schoolwork...hi mom!) and grown at a much faster rate than I was. As long as I avoided getting the station sued, it could have easily been a worthwhile investment. It would have been a risk for me not having a degree to fall back on (although, unlike a basketball player my degree would have been in my industry, not something else) but the general accepted standard of broadcast journalism is you have a degree and are of a certain age before you start working as a professional.

Even now, as I'm on the job hunt again, networks like ESPN and CBS have determined that I'm not ready for that stage yet. I don't have the experience. I'm not old enough. I haven't seen enough.

So why is the NBA, the highest level of professional basketball that exists, any different? It's not. Which is why the one and done rule is stupid. It should be two years, when kids have really had a chance to develop, get some bumps and bruises in the college game (or overseas) and are mature enough to handle the independence of NBA life.

The correct rebuttal against this argument is not "LeBron James was ready for the NBA." The correct rebuttal is "if ESPN thought you were ready, they could hire you while the NBA couldn't hire Nerlens Noel." I understand that and fully acknowledge that many high school players have gone on to great NBA careers. From KG to Kobe to Lebron, the examples are there and of course there are also the examples guys who have been mediocre (Sebastian Telfair) or worse (Ndubi Ebi anyone?).

So why is the rule fair? Sports owners have long proven they can't help themselves when it comes to potential. No matter how a CBA is written, owners will find ways to hand out stupid contracts. Why did NBA owners push so hard for shorter contracts in the last negotiations? Because that way when they handed out stupid contracts, they would only kill their franchises for a half a decade instead of a full one. Hell, they had the amnesty clause so they could get out of a bad contract entirely (at least in terms of the salary cap) because there were so many they had already given out.

The Proof

The more time there is to evaluate a player, the less mistakes you'll make so the one and done rule serves as a safety net for the NBA to make more educated investments. Don't believe me? Here are the #1 overall picks since 2007 when the rule took hold: Greg Oden, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, John Wall, Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis. The only bust? Oden who's bust is totally injury related and 1000% magnified by the fact that the guy picked after him was Kevin Durant.

The honest truth is, there have been very few high school guys who have been ready for the NBA. Plenty have had great careers, but with the exception of LeBron, most weren't ready to contribute right away. Making a James go to school for a year and risking they get hurt happens far less than a Kwame Brown coming through where you don't really know what you're getting into.

Want further proof? Fab Melo would have been a top 10 if not top 5 pick purely on potential coming out of school. Scouts needed one year at Syracuse to see he wasn't ready. The same with Dion Waiters whose years under Jim Boeheim helped him come into the NBA ready to contribute and likely on a better career trajectory than if he hadn't been straightened out on the hill. 

Would these two have been better off toiling away on an NBA bench or playing college ball? Unquestionably the latter. While it may have cost them two years of salary, going to school was better for both of their careers and that has nothing to do with their education. This means you can skip the Fab Melo jokes.

Players Play, Owners Own

At the end of the day, it's the owners’ league and they get to make the rules. The players can fight for their rights, but what qualifies you to work is something set by the employer in any industry. It's why the 19-year-old age limit exists and why David Stern wants it upped to 20. Believe it or not, there's a massive jump from playing 20 games against dudes many of whom I could run with in high school to 82 against the best in the world.

Do I feel bad for Noel? Of course. By nearly any account he’s a great kid and there’s a chance he just lost a few million. However this doesn’t make me mad at the NBA for not letting him play. While this overall argument is admittedly up for debate, “who are we made at?” when it comes to Noel shouldn’t be.

We should be mad at the NCAA – the organization that allowed the stanchion Noel ran into to be so close to the court and isn’t paying him a dime. This of course is despite the millions of dollars he’ll make for Kentucky and the “non-profit organization” that they are.

As for Noel, he should quit Kentucky’s team and hire an agent today. There are no rules prohibiting him from rehabbing at Kentucky if he’s not a part of the team and since he’s not going to put on a Wildcat uniform again, he might as well get the best treatment and advice he can. Sound wrong? Feel wrong? If David Stern had his way, that wouldn’t be an option because Noel would be back next year and couldn’t give up his eligibility.

In the end, it's a really dicey issue because athletes have such a limited window for maximizing their earning potential. There's a very strong argument to be made for letting a high school kid make the jump because cutting a year or two off his NBA career means cutting a significant percentage off his max earning potential. Cutting a year off a 10-year career is 10%. That's a lot.

However the NBA is making major investments in these players and they have every right to set the minimum working requirements for their company. It's the elite of the elite. They should have standards.

Now getting mad at the NCAA? I'm all for that.