Kentucky vs Wichita State - Where Narratives Went To Die

As Duke, Kansas and Syracuse fell the narrative was growing. The 2012 Kentucky team led by freshmen Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was the exception, not the rule. You couldn't win with one-and-done players. Even that team had a senior leader in Darius Miller. Carmelo Anthony had veterans around him in 2003 too. It just can't be done.

Down went Jabari Parker and Duke. Down went Andrew Wiggins and Kansas.

Julius Randle was next. His Kentucky squad was matched up against a veteran Wichita State team that hadn't lost since they took one too many punches from Louisville in last year's Final Four.

Wichita State pulled ahead early, executing their gameplan to perfection. I, and many others, thought they would win. Kentucky hadn't played smart basketball all year. Kentucky hadn't played together all year. They had 10 good minutes against Florida in the SEC Championship and that's it.

They picked a pretty good time to start. The Harrison twins played their best game all season. Randle was dominant in stretches. The game was played at a level rarely seen in college hoops. Pressure? Instead of folding, both teams rose. Cleanthony Early couldn't miss. The Kentucky freshmen were money from the free throw line down the stretch.

With all that said, the narrative had a chance to play out. The pressure to execute is never greater than a last second inbounds play. As Luke Winn from Sports Illustrated revealed in this brilliant piece, the play was called "Havlicek" and the number one option was a lob to Cleanthony Early.

Here is a freeze frame as the action starts. Early is the player at the most bottom of the screen.

Things that would inhibit a lob -

1) A defender at the rim

2) A defender inhibiting Early so that he wouldn't have a clear path to the rim

3) Ball pressure making a lob difficult

4) Early getting caught up in the screening action

5) Aliens from outer space

None of these things happened.

James Young (#1 in blue) was guarding Early. He was lost. Willie Caulie-Stein (#15 in blue) is one of the best rim protectors in the country. He had no idea someone was sneaking behind him and it looked like protecting the rim wasn't his assignment. He had a man he was supposed to stick with. It appeared as if no one had the specific job of protecting the rim.

As it played out, Early planted his right foot at the very moment captured above and faded to the wing, out of the play. I would love to ask him or Gregg Marshall what he was reading, because watching the video and looking at the freeze frame above, it seems like he made the wrong read. The pass didn't even have to be perfect. Any where where Early could catch it leads to a layup or dunk. Instead he bailed.

Instead Kentucky shut off the 2nd option, Ron Baker (#31 in white) curling to the corner and Wichita State was left with their 3rd option. Fred Van Vleet came to the top of the key, took one rhythm dribble to his right and launched a 25 footer that missed as time expired. Game over.

As the horn sounded, the narrative died.

Talented freshmen can beat an experienced team that plays together. The key is them actually playing together. That's why Kentucky won in 2012. It's the same reason Louisville won last year. It's the same reason any team wins any year.

There is no new narrative.

Talent will always compete. Execution will always matter. When talent executes, it will win.

Sunday we didn't see talent versus execution. We saw Wichita State's talent executing as they had all year versus Kentucky's talent executing like they hadn't all year. The clock ran out while Kentucky had two more points.

A single game cannot define a season. It can end it. Wichita State is one of the ten best teams in the country and probably the best five. Their problem on Sunday is they ran into another one who finally played like it.

Final Four Primer

This week has been one of the craziest of my life. In the past 36 hours alone I've driven from Kansas to Texas with a pitstop for Spurs/Thunder in OKC, met my new PD, seen my new station, spent an entire day looking for apartments and slept for maybe 3.5 hours. For those that know my sleep schedule, I don't do 3.5 hours of sleep! I'm happy to finally have a minute to write though and with not much time left to do this before the games tomorrow night, here's your Final Four primer.

How'd they get here?

Syracuse

• The Orange got embarrassed and bruised egos propelled Cuse all the way to Atlanta. SU was horrible down the stretch culminating with a blowout loss at Georgetown. This team doesn't have fantastic leadership but it has top flight talent and top flight talent comes with egos. A bruised ego is a hell of a motivating factor and the Cuse turned around their offensive slump thanks to hot shooting from James Southerland, attacking aggression from Brandon Triche and good decision making from Michael Carter-Williams. The defense never really left despite the losses but it's gotten even better in the tournament. The Orange have forced more turnovers than field goals allowed. That's my favorite stat of 2013 and it's not even close.

Michigan

• Point guard Trey Burke has been sensational all year and now he's getting help from freshman Mitch McGary inside making the Wolverines almost impossible to guard. Michigan has run a ton of pick-and-roll in this tournament though and you can't really do that against a zone. That Burke/McGary pick-and-roll has opened up the shooters and with all five starts capable of scoring, Michigan's the most potent offensive team in the tournament.

Wichita State

• Timing is everything and Wichita State picked it's game with #1 Gonzaga in the round of 32 to have it's best shooting stretch of the year from deep. They basically didn't miss from 3 in the second half including some prayers late in the shot clock and there's nothing the Zags could do. They play their game which is in the half-court with nasty defense and it's worked like a charm.

Louisville

• Louisville has gotten here by obliterating people. The only "close" game was the regional final against Duke. The Blue Devils played it close for a half before the Ville did exactly what they did to Syracuse in the Big East Tournament final and turned up the heat. They've gotten exceptional guard play and Gorgui Dieng has held down the fort inside. We've said all year there is no dominant team, but for the last month Louisville has been just that. 

Keys to the games

Louisville vs Wichita St

This game is all about pace. If the Cardinals can speed Wichita State up, the Shockers don't stand a chance. WSU needs to make this a lower numbered possessions game and hope that Louisville's guard throw away one too many. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith have been almost unbelievably good this tournament, yet their larger body of work provides a blueprint to beat them: turn them over. Both guys can be turnover prone at times and Smith takes some horrific shots that might as well be turnovers.

The key for Wichita State is to make both Smith and Siva into jump shooters and hope each has a bad night. Louisville just needs to play it's game and the Cardinals play Monday night. Turn up the press, get to the rim and create organized chaos that's not so organized for the opponent.

Syracuse vs Michigan

This game is about discipline for Syracuse and managing the moment for Michigan. If SU can continue to challenge everything from the perimeter like they have been through the tournament season, Nik Stauskas won't go 6-6 from three like he did against Florida. Michigan has shooters all over the place so it's important that SU's rotations are on point.

Michigan's offense has been largely predicated on the pick-and-roll with Trey Burke and Mitch McGary over the past 4 games and the result has been huge numbers for both and 4 wins. You can't run a pick-and-roll against a zone though so it'll be interesting to see how John Beilein attacks the 2-3. He certainly has experience doing it from his years at West Virginia. He's 0-9 against Boeheim but never had a player at WVU as good as Burke. If Burke penetrates, everything else breaks down. SU has to hope Burke's lack of size causes him problems against the extreme length of Michael Carter-Williams and Brandon Triche.

The last part to Cuse's plan is finishing possessions. McGary's a very good and relentless offensive rebounder and Tim Hardaway Jr. and Glen Robinson III are super athletic wings who will crash the glass. The Orange has to rebound as extra possessions for Michigan is a death wish.

The other end of the floor is pretty simple. Triche needs to stay aggressive. Carter-Williams has to be careful against Burke not to get picked and I'd expect a lot of Brandon Triche bringing the ball up the floor. Get into the offense. Attack the rim. Kick out to Southerland and Fair and SU's offense is just fine.

If Michigan, with it's four freshmen starters, can do the things I listed above they'll have a great shot to win. If the moments too big and they force threes, John Beilein will be 0-10 against Jim Boeheim.


Prediction:

My heart says Cuse wins it all, completing the revenge tour Monday night against Lousiville. This would mean in the tournament season, SU beat Georgetown, Marquette and the Cardinals all whom beat SU in the regular season and in Louisville's case for the Big East Championship. My eyes tell me the Cardinals win it all.

If you've seen my bracket, that means Michigan will win. If Wichita State wins I give up forever.