Random Rumblings 3-11-13

I haven't emptied out the notebook in a while, so let's get after it.

So the Lakers are in the playoffs

I've thought all along they'd find a way in and sure enough by early March the Lakers are technically in the playoffs. They have a real shot at finishing not only with the 8th seed but in the 7 or even 6 spot. The Lakers are behind Houston (1 game for 7th) and Golden State (2 games for 6th) as it stands now and the Warriors haven't been playing well. However finishing 8th might wind up being a better option for LA as their #1 goal should be avoiding Oklahoma City for as long as possible. If they get San Antonio (who right now has the #1 seed) or the Clippers (3rd seed) then the Lakers could definitely win a series and then who knows.

So how did we get here from "TRADE EVERYONE NOW!" where I was a month ago. A few things changed and maybe we did jump the gun after all. First and foremost Dwight Howard is playing much better and more importantly acting like a grownup since the all-star break. Everyone's talking about his back getting healthier. No one's talking about him totally cutting sugar from his diet and his conditioning "suddenly" improving. Yes the back is getting better finally and the difference is real but if an NBA has to cut sugar out of his diet, especially when conditioning is an issue, then something has been going wrong.

Just as importantly Dwight has embraced Kobe Bryant's leadership style also known as gotten over himself. It's easy to buy into a guy who's playing as well and as hard as Bryant and maybe if Howard matches Kobe's effort (or is at least close) down the stretch, Bryant can conserve a little bit for May and June. Kobe told Michael Wilbon in an interview over the weekend he didn't imagine being so "doggon tired" at this point in the year because he's had to put in so much effort this season. Kobe's conditioning has never been a question but the reality is this is season 17 with the playoffs in nearly all of them and deep runs in many. For a guy who's game is predicated on a lot of jumpers and some newly re-found explosiveness, having his legs is kind of important.

While I've maintained all year that the Lakers would find their way in, I've also said I would've traded Dwight because I don't see this working moving forward. I'm not willing to totally come off of that yet, but if Howard's attitude change is permanent then I'm in. Sign Dwight to the extension and move on with him as the centerpiece for the future. Missing in all of this of course is Pau Gasol who's absence has given the Lakers an identity. They're no longer battling the old two bigs signature they had with Gasol and Andrew Bynum. This is a pick-and-roll team with Bryant, Howard and Steve Nash. If they can make a few moves to get some shooters and a little more athleticism this summer, a title run next year isn't out of the question if Bryant stays at this level. At the center of any deal will be Gasol. More unthinkable to early February me is Mike D'Antoni might be around to see it all. We'll see what happens.

Syracu-ewwwwwse

That pun works better if you say it out loud. Kinda. I apologize. That was bad even for me. Not as bad as the Orange over the last month though. Totally disgusting. I wrote about SU's struggles in depth for Orange Fizz but I wanted to highlight the astounding difference in offensive quality between Syracuse and Georgetown Saturday.

If you want to die playing a drinking game (by halftime), chug your beverage of choice every time a Syracuse player stands and dribbles in place behind the 3 point line. Play the same game with Georgetown and a Mormon could participate while keeping his or her religion which strictly prohibits alcohol.

For the Hoyas there is constant ball movement and man movement. While their Princeton offense against man-to-man is painfully slow and drives everyone nuts, their zone offense is simply beautiful. It is instructional tape good. You know why Markel Starks and Otto Porter were always open? Because Syracuse was busy moving around playing defense and couldn't track them as they moved within their system. Meanwhile Syracuse would pound the ball into the floor, maybe make one pass and take a bad perimeter shot time and again. The difference is staggering. More on The Fizz.

WR's on the move

The NFC West is the best division in football and today it's best two teams got better. The Seahawks made a dynamite move in adding Percy Harvin. Their pistol offense is hard enough to defend thanks to uber accurate yet mobile quarterback Russell Wilson. Now you add a guy in Harvin who you have to first locate then try and defend on every play on top of Wilson and a superb power running game from Marshawn Lynch and that team is a total offensive juggernaut.

You know what would have helped the 49ers in the Super Bowl? A big possession receiver who's excellent in the red zone. Kinda like the guy who killed them in the Ravens' Anquan Boldin. So today the 49ers traded for Anquan Boldin. The trade gives Colin Kaepernick a tremendos stable of solid targets with Boldin, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. All of them fit the physical identity of the team.

What's laughable to me about the Boldin trade is that a guy who could've been the Super Bowl MVP was traded for a 6th round pick. It's not uncommon for 6th round guys to turn out well in the NFL but the chances of getting someone as good as Anquan Boldin the 6th round aren't awesome. Draft picks sound great but the minute you use them on a player, they lose value. Unless of course it's an early prospect who still has lots of upside until he actually plays and people realize they're not that good. It's worse often in the NBA but the NFL is guilty of it too.

Oh yeah...that dunk

What Deandre Jordan did to Brandon Knight last night was inhumane.

How Knight handled it was spectacular.

It wasn't in the scouting reports that the clippers threw lobs lol
— Brandon E Knight (@BrandonKnight07) March 11, 2013

Knight's a really smart guy who probably could've graduated Kentucky in 2 years because he had so many credits when he got to school. He went to a prep school and was the valedictorian. Instead he stayed at UK for a single season and was a top 10 pick. He couldn't have handled this any better. Except not getting underneath Jordan in the first place. As ESPN's Michael Smith said:

What happened to Brandon Knight is a teachable moment. Discretion is the better part of valor.
— Michael Smith (@michaelsmith) March 11, 2013

Other random thoughts

• Tiger Woods is the best golfer on the planet again. He's won 5 of his last 19 tournaments. I'd be shocked if he doesn't win a major this year. Whether he's "back" or not depends on whether or not you're an idiot. I mean whether or not you care about that stuff. Which you shouldn't because it's impossible to define and changes depending on what you think of Woods. He's better than everyone else. Fact. No further "meaning" needed.

• Victor Oladipo said if the media doesn't vote Cody Zeller Player of the Year, something's wrong with them. Well Victor, that's not the first time someone's told me that because I had a vote, I'd vote for you. In big spot after big spot on both ends of the floor, Oladipo was sensational. Tom Creen recruited him hoping to find a poor man's Dwyane Wade and that's what he got. A freak athlete who plays much bigger than his size by rebounding and blocking shots. He's not Dwyane Wade. He won't be nearly the pro although I think he'll be a solid NBA player, but a poor man's college Wade? Win for Tommy. 

• Do yourself a favor and watch the Big East Women's Championship tomorrow night when Notre Dame and UConn square off for the 3rd time this year. It's likely the last time they'll do so in this setting as it looks like the Irish are ACC bound next year. I was at the first meeting and watched the second just last week and came away from both games feeling like the better team, UConn, lost. A huge reason why is Notre Dame had the best player in Skylar Diggins who bailed her team out with spectacular play. The first time they had a great look at the end from the best shooter in the country and missed. The second time they should've won at the end of regulation and each of the first two overtimes and Notre Dame got bailed out by the refs and then pulled miracles before dominating the 3rd OT as the absences of Stefanie Dolson and Bria Hartley finally caught up to the Huskies. Simply put, if you like good basketball watch. Yes it's women's basketball but it's good basketball.

Fake Trade That Will Never Happen But Should

The NBA's trade deadline is today at 3 pm and I have a deal that I love the more I think about, but it will simply never happen. Why? It makes too much sense. And one of the players involved wouldn't waive his no-trade clauses but it would never get to that point because there's just zero chance of the GM's coming together to make it happen. But it should. Because it would make all three teams better. Holy blockbuster here's the deal and yes, the salaries work:

Lakers get:
G Rajon Rondo (BOS)
F Jeff Green (BOS)
F Lamar Odom (LAC)

Celtics get:
C Dwight Howard (LAL)
G Steve Nash (LAL)
G Eric Bledsoe (LAC)

Clippers get:
F Kevin Garnett (BOS)

That's it. That's the trade. Every name you've heard from these teams in trade rumors (plus Nash and Odom) all for each other and somehow with all the zillions of trade restrictions in the NBA, it actually works. Here are the positives and negatives for all involved.

Lakers

The first and biggest mental hurdle of this trade is the Lakers willingness to trade Howard. They insist they're not. I've long said they should and this deal in particular makes sense for multiple reasons. The reason you keep Howard is he gives you a next superstar after Kobe Bryant retires. By getting Rondo, you get that and you do so at a position of need. While Nash has been alright offensively this year, he's never been a great defensive player. Rondo is better than Nash at both ends at this point in their careers and in the point guard heavy western conference, having a stopper at that position is essential.

Unlike Howard, he has the competitive drive to keep up with Bryant and while "every night Rondo" is different than "national TV Rondo" he never fails to show up for big games and that would resonate with Bryant. Now for the thing you didn't think of.

If the Lakers keep Howard, they have to fire Mike D'Antoni for reasons well documented (they hate each other). D'Antoni's on a multi-year deal. The Lakers are still paying Mike Brown. They'd have to hire a new coach (and would flirt with the uber-expensive Phil Jackson). That's a whole lot of money. So who could possibly run Mikey D's system?

What is needed is a younger Steve Nash. I pass-first point guard with an outstanding handle who looks to pass first but can also score. Also known as Rajon Rondo. Nash was/is a much better shooter than Rondo (understatement) but Rondo puts pressure on a defense much like Nash did which opens the passing angles that pick-and-rolled Nash to two MVP trophies. By also adding Green, the Lakers get younger and more athletic at the four spot. Green's a stretch four too which is essential to D'Antoni's system. Pau Gasol shifts to center. Earl Clark and Green play the four or Green can play some at the three for the most athletic lineup the Lakers have had in years. Bada boom. Bada bing. You don't have to fire D'Antoni and the only financial hell you're in is your luxury tax instead of players and coaches dismembering the Buss family bank account.

Is it a perfect, fool-proof plan? Of course not. Rondo and Bryant could butt heads as to who's the alpha-male much like Rondo has with Pierce. Unlike with Pierce, Rondo would lose this battle and who knows how he would handle it. Rondo could also look at all the other guys who think D'Antoni is clueless, not listen to him and not come close to the production Nash enjoyed in Phoenix. While Rondo can lock in defensively, he likes to gamble much like Bryant which could cause very inconsistent defensive play and Gasol isn't exactly an elite rim protector like Bryant used to have with Bynum/younger Gasol/Odom or Rondo has had in KG.

If my options are "keep malcontent Howard and either have to fire a coach/lose him for nothing this summer" or "guarantee something to build around, not have Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker and Chris Paul dribble in circles around me in the playoffs and get the added bonus of not kill my finances," I'll take the latter. Does it wave the white flag on this season cause Rondo's hurt? Probably, but the Lakers are about titles and if you think this team is winning a title this year, you haven't been paying attention.

Celtics

The Celtics are willing to trade Rondo in part because they realize their window is closing as fast as the Lakers is with Bryant. They weren't very good this year with Rondo and are playing better now without him (hooray ball movement!) but in the playoffs they'll miss him if they don't make a move. Unlike the Lakers who are trying to compete in the point-guard heavy west with the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers, the C's have one opponent in mind: Miami. What's the way everyone thinks is best to beat Miami? Size.

By bringing in Howard, Boston at worst stays neutral or more likely upgrades defensively over KG depending on Dwight's back. Maybe not competing with Green for minutes re-inspires Brandon Bass and you don't wind up missing Green at all and it also creates an interesting backcourt dynamic. Courtney Lee moves to the bench and you start Nash with Avery Bradley. It's a small backcourt but who has two supreme offensive guards? Milwaukee, who's trying to trade one. So no one and it's not a problem. Bradley guards the more explosive offensive guard (Wade, Raymond Felton/JR Smith, Paul George, etc) while Nash can stand in the corner with Ronnie Brewer and Mario Chalmers. I love Mario as a spot up guy, but if the offense is being run through him and not Wade/LeBron, advantage not Miami.

Lee then comes in with Jason Terry who can spark the second unit (again thinking the "new role, stop playing like garbage" theory here) while Lee can be your traditional pressure the ball 94 feet backup point guard.

You miss the leadership of KG but gain a lot of it back in Nash. There's potential tension between Pierce and Howard but if you convince Dwight that Pierce is a billiondy times better version of Hedo Turkoglu whom he took to The Finals in '09 maybe they play nice. Also, Doc Rivers isn't exactly Mike D'Antoni at managing egos. Which is a good thing.

Clippers

If the Clippers make it out of the west and meet Miami in The Finals, do you feel good about their chances? As we saw last year with OKC and really Miami before that, there's a process in the NBA and you have to learn to win. This group of Clippers is just too young and outside of Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups, them coming up short on a big stage wouldn't be shocking. Enter KG.

While it would no doubt still be Paul's team, Garnett would provide some experience amongst the bigs and his presence might do even more in the long-term development of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan (who I managed to keep in LA doing this deal) than help LA this season. From a basketball standpoint, he also provides them stability in late game situations. Right now you're scared to play Jordan or Blake, nevertheless both, late in games because each is a horrific free throw shooter. Add in the fact that neither is an elite defender and the decision to play Garnett over one of them is easy.

While no one's talking about it, Dwight Howard isn't the only superstar in LA with an expiring contract. Paul's deal is up when the season ends as well and it makes sense that maximizing this year's playoff run maximizes the chances Paul resigns. While you give up uber potential in Bledsoe, you've got plenty of guard depth and he's a backup guard. Is he one of the best backup guards in the league? Yes, but he's a backup guard. This logic also applies to Lamar Odom who might actually be the deal breaker (see below).

Why it doesn't happen

Nash signed in LA this summer so that he could be close to his kids in Phoenix. While he doesn't have a no-trade clause, the Lakers aren't trading him even though this move makes a ton of sense as it would be a horrible look for the organization. That kind of classlessness could set off Kobe too and how the Lakers come off after the passing of Dr. Jerry Buss is important. Garnett does have a no-trade clause and has said he's not going anywhere unless the Celtics trade Pierce, which they wouldn't do because in this scenario they're still going for it this year, just without Garnett.

Odom is the interesting piece. I had to throw him in for salary purposes but that's actually the closest thing to a deal breaker in this whole thing because trading him away takes away such a unique piece of the Clippers bench, their biggest strength and gives more to the Lakers who lack it, making one of your rivals stronger. The argument to do it anyway is Garnett is an upgrade on Odom on both ends, Jordan becomes a bench player because KG takes his starting spot and to hell with the Lakers because you think you're the better team and can beat them.

You could also do this trade subbing Jordan for Odom. The salaries still work and the Clippers keep an experienced piece in Odom while giving up a guy who still has a lot of potential and is definitely getting better in Jordan. You're basically sacrificing future for present. While the thought of another young, athletic piece for the Lakers is exciting if they keep D'Antoni, the chance to re-unite Bryant, Gasol and Odom along with the fact that Odom's on a one-year deal is probably more appealing to the Lakers. Either way, I'd pull the trigger if I'm any of these teams.

The reality is this trade will never ever be discussed nevertheless happen. If it were somehow to make it to the right desks though, who (besides Garnett), says no?

Weekend Rewind - 1/28/13

Down goes Cuse

Syracuse is 1-2 against the city of Philadelphia this season and undefeated against everyone else. The good news? No more games against teams from Philly until at least the Big East Tournament. So that's nice.

SU lost Saturday thanks to a number of factors, most of which have and will continue to be discussed. For starters, SU didn't foul up 3 in the final seconds allowing Ryan Arcidiacono to hit a miracle shot and force overtime. At this point it's not even an argument of whether that's sound strategy as the numbers scream that it is. Jim Boeheim agrees, so why didn't he?

The reason is there wasn't really a spot to. Villanova got the ball up the court, took a terrible shot, missed and then got the offensive rebound. If you're going to make the foul argument, that would've been the spot to do it - before the Cats were able to get the ball back out. You'd never coach your team to do that though, so it would have taken an individual player taking that initiative and in that spot that's an absurd thing to ask. Instead you play defense and hope for the best. Arcidiacono hit an incredibly difficult shot. It happens.

Where Boeheim is perhaps more at fault is how he handled his rotation down the stretch that resulted in Baye Moussa-Keita and Jerami Grant being unavailable in the final minutes after fouling out. There's a school of thought that says "they're going to play a certain number of minutes, so let em play" and that's basically what Boeheim did. I'm in the other camp. See how long you can go without them and then when it's crunch time, come in for the save.

The result was Brandon Triche playing the back line and a severe lack of size that killed the Orange. While Triche is smart enough and big enough in terms of bulk to play down low, he can't protect the rim like the wings in SU's zone need to. Villanova had a few baskets right over the 6'4" guard. It mattered. A "solution" I thought of at the time and eventually threw out on Twitter yesterday was putting Michael Carter-Williams on the wing. MCW's nearly 6'7" and his length would have been an upgrade over Triche. 

The downsides though are plentiful and it's why I waffle on whether it would have actually been better. Carter-Williams would have been bullied, as Triche is massively stronger despite the lack of height. He's also excellent at the top of the zone and his ball pressure is a lot to give up. Last but not least, Triche is a four-year starter who knows the zone inside and out. There's a great chance MCW would've screwed up a few rotations. Triche was at least in the right spot every time.

The other obvious solution would have been Dajuan Coleman. The frosh has gotten the authentic highly recruited freshman treatment from Jim Boeheim like Fab Melo and Rakeem Christmas before him - start, play until you screw up 30 seconds in and sit on the bench for basically the rest of the game. Literally as I'm typing this, I (and everyone else who's ever covered SU) got an email saying Coleman's having knee surgery so maybe he wasn't an option after all but the larger problem still remains. For as awesome as the zone is, it's limiting in what you can do with a lineup. 

All of the other problems people scream about with Boeheim's 2-3 only mentality don't bother me. SU plays the 2-3 so well and morphs it so many ways, that they can cover a hot shooter. In late game situations, you might not be able to "lock down" on the guy with the ball, but you've eliminated so many plays that only work against man-to-man it's at least even if not an advantage for SU. That said, the option not to play 3 guards drives me insane. Last year, a lineup with Scoop Jardine, Brandon Triche and Dion Waiters could've put up some serious numbers and caused other coaches nightmares. It barely ever happened because of the defensive implications meaning one of your best players always had to be on the bench.

This season's team breaks down differently as Trevor Cooney has been a massive disappointment. He'll have a fine career (I think), but it's been quite frankly astonishing how pathetic he's been shooting considering in warm-ups he can't miss. He can't play game speeds yet. 

James Southerland's return is, in a word, necessary. Boeheim has no problem playing 6 guys and at this point that's all he's got. Cooney's sole purpose is to give MCW and Triche a blow. Christmas, Moussa-Keita, C.J. Fair, Grant, Triche and Carter-Williams are the only guys that should see regular minutes. Winning a title with 6 guys isn't impossible but it's unlikely because if one guy gets in foul trouble you're in deep doo doo. If two are stuck, Saturday happens. With Southerland available, I'm not writing any of this.

You can't fault Boeheim for a lack of depth either. An eight man rotation is ideal and if Cooney doesn't flop and Southerland is eligible, that's what he's got thanks to Grant's stellar play. Outside of Coleman, there's not really another guy on the roster who you realistically wish got more run. The problem with Coleman is playing him moves Rak Christmas to a wing where he's dramatically worse as a defender or to the bench where he's...well...on the bench. Playing those two together slaughters your floor spacing on offense as well as both are useless outside the paint. Again, Southerland coming back solves all problems.

Down goes Rondo

The NBA world was shocked when we all found out Rajon Rondo is out for the year with a torn ACL. Immediately the "blow up the Celtics" talk began and I just don't know how realistic that is. Tomorrow I'll be doing a podcast so I'll save the bulk of my thoughts for that, but the question here to ponder is what was the goal of the Celtics this season? Did they really think they could win a title or did they want to stay relevant? Whatever that answer is frames the rest of the conversation.

Up go the Lakers

I reserve the right to change my mind by the end of the week, but I actually think this Lakers thing is going to work. I said in a previous post that if the Lakers played pickup ball they'd be better off than Mike D'Antoni's stupid system. Turns out, that's basically what they've done. The biggest question remaining is will Kobe be happy playing distributer. 

To quote Bryant: "We finally beat a team that's worth a s---" so he knows that playing that way works. J.A. Adande had a fascinating read on how every single one of the Lakers stars has changed how they've played their entire careers to make things work in the past week. To maintain that will be very difficult. When you've been successful, changing from what got you there is damn near impossible. However if the Lakers keep winning, this can work. Maybe I'm overreacting to two games, but I'll say the Lakers make the playoffs. The reason - if they keep playing, it's not a question of whether or not it will work. It will. The only question is will they continue to do it? To be determined…

Podcast - A Ride on the Lakers Struggle Bus

ESPN LA's Dave McMenamin joins me to discuss the Lakers struggles as we reach the midpoint in the season. We also discuss his man crush on Steve Novak. Both the struggles and the man crush are very rule.

Random Rumblings - 1/12/13

Star Power

Stars in the NBA are somehow both overrated and 100% necessary. The "somehow" is actually not a mystery. In the regular season they are overrated while in the playoffs you essentially can't win without them. Want proof? Look at the Knicks and the Lakers last night.

Both teams are struggling at the moment. Outside of their stretch between coaches, the Lakers have struggled all year. Bernie Bickerstaff for the win(s). The Knicks however have been struggling since basically Christmas and the reasons are similar. First, injuries have depleted both rosters. Raymond Felton and Rasheed Wallace were playing major roles and producing at a high level for New York and have been missed dearly. The absence of Felton has meant more minutes for Jason Kidd and he just can't handle that at his age. The rotation was basically perfect to start the year. It's now a mess. You can tell a coach is searching for answers when he starts a player, plays him two and a half minutes and then doesn't play him for the rest of the half. That's exactly what Mike Woodson did with James White last night.

Meanwhile the Lakers have illustrated the other two main reasons both teams are struggling endlessly. The second issue both teams suffer from is a lack of defensive effort. Whether it's mental lapses, miscommunication or not being in the right position, the Lakers are putting on a "what not to do" defensive clinic this year. The Knicks at least know what they're supposed to be doing (Woodson>>>>D'Antoni defensively) but inconsistent effort has cost them games. The third thing is the star power. The Lakers at one point last night had a lineup of Chris Duhon, Darius Morris, Jodie Meeks, Earl Clark and Robert Sacre. A magical thing happened. The ball moved.

Ball movement is essential to basketball. It's a simple concept. The more the ball moves, the more the defense moves. Think of the 5 defensive players as a 5 cog machine. The more pieces there are in a machine and the more they are used, the more likely one of them is to break. The more the defense moves, the more likely they are to make a mistake. This is why when the ball stops in the hands of Carmelo Anthony/JR Smith or Kobe Bryant, the Knicks and Lakers offenses dissolve into futility. Plus, the rest of the team has no rhythm and doesn't feel involved. This crushes any flow and consistently hurts defensive intensity and causes a cycle of bad basketball hell.

Without a ball stopper on offense, this doesn't happen. No one's sitting around watching Darius Morris want to make a play. It's not always the star's fault. Often other guys see the ball get to the star and just stop. It's part proper spacing, but after about a second and a half, if the guy with the ball doesn't make a move, you've got to continue doing something. Instead, bad basketball hell cycle happens and so does losing.

NFL Picks

Normally my picks come in podcast form with Alex Brewer. One of us got distracted when we were supposed to record this week and I'm not going to point any fingers but it was him. Instead you have to read more. Which is ironic. Because Alex can't read. (BOOOOOOOM!!!)

Baltimore at Denver

Doesn't it seem appropriate that the one to end Ray Lewis's Hall of Fame career is another future Hall of Famer in Peyton Manning. The cold weather is going to be a factor. Today's tilt will be the coldest game in the NFL this year. Baltimore's offense is predicated on Ray Rice and the big play. It's hard to hit the big play in snow, ice and freezing cold temperatures, especially when Denver's defense, and specifically their pass rush are fantastic. Meanwhile Denver has offensive balance and there's a reason they haven't lost in forever. I'll take Baltimore to cover a massive -9 spread, but Denver wins at home.

Green Bay at San Francisco

The logic here is simple. Take the best quarterback in the league and he plays for Green Bay. Add in the fact that said quarterback has a vendetta against his opponent and I feel even better about it. Aaron Rodgers is a northern California kid who got passed over for Alex Smith on draft day and has never let that go. It'll be up to Smith's replacement Colin Kaepernick to generate points and more importantly not turn it over. Rodgers loves to take advantage of opponents' mistakes and defending him on a short field is near impossible. Justin Smith being back is huge as it makes Aldon Smith relevant again but it's not enough. Give me Green Bay to cover the 3 and win outright on the road by the bay.

Seattle at Atlanta

This game makes no sense. Non whatsoever. The #1 seed coming off a buy is a monster at home. Their quarterback is 33-6 at home in his life as a pro. The visitors have to fly cross country for the second time in a week, just lost their best pass rusher and have a rookie QB. However the home team is the Atlanta Falcons who have been absolutely housed the last two years in the playoffs by the eventual Super Bowl champion who was the hottest team in the league. That distinction could certainly go to Seattle who has only lost once since the calendar turned to November. The rookie quarterback is Russel Wilson who's as unflappable as any rookie in recent memory.

No outcome would surprise me, but I'm starting to get more concerned about my Seattle lean. There's a lot of noise around the Seahawks. Both coordinators are spending the day before the game not with their team but other teams, interviewing for head coaching jobs. I'm going to stick with my gut and say Seattle goes on the road and pulls this off, but it wouldn't surprise me if Atlanta finally breaks through in the post-season. If the Falcons do "pull it off" (amazing that we frame it like that given they are the #1 seed at home), look for Tony Gonzalez to be a major factor. Seattle's corners are fantastic and could limit Roddy White and Julio Jones. The biggest shocker of all of this though is that a win would be Gonzalez's first in the playoffs for perhaps the greatest tight end ever. I'll take Seattle to cover (+1) and win outright.

Houston at New England

Some people feel like this is the biggest lock of the weekend. I'm not one of those people. In playoff games that are rematches of 28+ point regular season blowouts, teams that won (and lost) are 11-11. Houston was the best team in the league for the first half of the season and then seemingly stopped playing. They now have something to play for again and had a warmup week against Cincinnati. It's imperative that Arian Foster has a big impact but Matt Schaub will need to make a few plays. More importantly for Houston is J.J. Watt. He's won games for Houston this year by completely wrecking the other team's offense. Doing that to Tom Brady is infinitely more difficult than doing it to anyone else not named Peyton Manning. If you hear Watt's name a lot, Houston has a chance. If not, Houston we have a problem. That was the lowest of the low hanging fruit and I apologize. I just can't do it. Take Houston to cover the 10, but New England wins outright.

Random Rumblings

There's a ton of stuff going on right now and I haven't written in a while so it's time to empty the mind brain on a few things. I was going to write today on the somewhat complicated place of Jim Boeheim in history, which is actually a stupid argument over semantics, but I think I'm going to save those thoughts for an Orange Fizz post. Normally I write there on Fridays, but tomorrow is the day Ebenezer Ogundeko announces and that will likely take precedent. Stay tuned to Twitter for the Boeheim article. On to the other sports related thoughts floating around my otherwise empty head:

Amare says he's never been told how to play defense:

Amare Stoudemire told reporters yesterday he's never been taught how to play defense until now, with Mike Woodson as the Knicks head coach. Stoudemire spent most of his career playing under Mike D'Antoni who is known as an offensive genius, but his teams have often been less than stellar defensively.

Defense is about three things: effort, instincts and positioning. Fixing Amare's defensive effort (if that's deemed a problem) is pretty easy. So much of defense is making a commitment to engage and push that extra little bit to get into position and make the right plays. However within a defensive scheme, which many average fans might not notice during a game, positioning is everything. The first step to stopping a drive to the basket isn't cutting off the ballhandler as he starts to go, it's the helpside defender already being in position so the drive never happens in the first place.

I learned a lot about defense during my two years at MTSU going to both Kermit Davis's and Rick Insell's practices. Great defenses are a step ahead of the offense. Rick had his girls work nearly every day on cutting off the cross court pass so many players make when they drive baseline and run out of room. Kermit screamed endlessly when his guys didn't get to the mid-line (an imaginary line that cuts the court into a left and right half) as that discouraged drives and put you in a perfect position to take a charge if the offense did try to come into the lane. These things can be taught, and it's shocking that in a 10 year NBA career, Amare's allegedly never gotten that coaching.

That said, he can learn and even a decade in can become a much better defender within a team context. However, it's not going to be easy as Amare clearly lacks superior defensive instincts. Two blocks per game should come easy to him based on his athleticism, however he's only hit that mark once in his career. Specifically being called into question is Amare's pick-and-roll defense. Stoudemire is considered one of the best pick-and-roll finishers in the league when healthy, yet he's never been able to turn that knowledge of how he reads and exploits basketball's most basic play offensively into defending it on the other end.

Marrone to the NFL

As a selfish Syracuse fan, I hope Doug Marrone stays in Orange. He said it's his dream job but as you achieve your dreams, you dream new ones and the reality is competitors want to compete at the highest level and no man is above a bigger paycheck. There's no doubt the NFL is the highest level of competition in football and Marrone has experienced that as a coach and as a player. We know he's interviewing for a number of jobs and it shouldn't surprise any of us if he takes one.

Marrone is a different kind of guy though and it wouldn't surprise me if he kicks the tires and decides to stay in Orange. He's got a new challenge ahead of him in moving to the ACC and while he's losing an NFL caliber quarterback in Ryan Nassib (I'm in still in disbelief that the previous statement is true, but it is even if he's a backup), he's gaining what many think is a future pro in Elite 11 QB Zach Allen and the chance to develop him could be one of the many reasons Marrone eventually winds up staying in Orange.

The bigger question is what does SU do if the two-time Pinstripe Bowl winner Dougies up to the NFL. Based off per speculation and minimal logic, here are SU's two best options in my mind:

1) Jim Tressel, former Ohio State Head Coach

We all know he left in a terrible manor from Ohio State, however how bad was it really? We all hate the NCAA's stupid rules, yet see a guy like Tressel as a horrible person for not following them? I can get over that. Tressel is an offensive minded guy who would be good for Allen and he's spent some time at SU as well as the QB Coach in 1981-82. He's an Ohio guy which is one of Syracuse's crucial recruiting areas and he might be willing to keep the defensive staff in place. This leads me to candidate number two.

2) Scott Shafer, SU Defensive Coordinator

I think we'd all agree we'd gladly take more of what Marrone is building, so why not just shift some pieces around and keep rolling? Shafer's a coaching lifer who's defensive resume is incredibly impressive. His players love playing for him and that's a key part of being a head coach. He preaches accountability (like Marrone) and that every man must simply do his job. I don't know if Shafer has head coaching chops because I'm not around him every day and he's never had to make clock management decisions, etc (some guys are meant to be coordinators) but I wouldn't be mad if he was given a shot.


Making the Jump
On top of Marrone, a ton of other college coaches could be making the jump to the pros including Oregon's Chip Kelly. The debate is endless on whether his uptempo system could work in the NFL, but I think the answer is clearly maybe. So decisive. I know.

There would have to be some changes and Kelly would absolutely have to have the right personnel to make it all work. The question is how realistic is getting that personnel (definitely possible) and will those small changes be enough to make the whole thing not work (maybe). I know if I was a GM/owner I'd be willing to find out and I wish the owner of my team would take that shot. Cam Newton cost Chip Kelly his best shot at a national title game in January of 2011 when Cam's Auburn team beat Kelly's Oregon Ducks on a last second field goal. To make his system work, Kelly needs a versatile and mobile quarterback and an army of running backs. No team fits that model better than the Panthers who have Newton to go with Deangelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart (a pre-Kelly Oregon Duck) and Mike Tolbert in the backfield.

Both coaches in this year's national title game will also be on NFL radars. Brain Kelly is ahead of schedule at Notre Dame being in the national title game this year. If I'm him, I'd wait. Even though this team was carried by the defense, the experience it's younger players, especially freshman quarterback Everett Golson, have gotten is invaluable. Perhaps the Irish can be right back in the title game a few times in the next few seasons and Kelly can leave in a few years tens of millions of dollars richer and a Notre Dame legend.

If Alabama wins Monday night, Nick Saban would only be further cementing his status as a legend in Tuscaloosa. That would make 3 titles in four years and at that point, what's the point? The NFL is the one thing Saban never mastered and for as competitive as he is, that has to eat at him. He spent two years with the Dolphins and got screwed over by his own medical staff who didn't clear Drew Brees. That meant the Dolphins had to sign Daunte Culpepper who was mediocre in 2005, got hurt and was had to be benched in 2006 for Joey Harrington who was so bad he got benched for something named Cleo Lemon. With that (whatever that combination of awful is) at quarterback over two years, he went 15-17 which is far from the abject disaster that everyone seems to make Saban's time in the NFL out to be. If Saban wins, he should go. Why not, unless he's comfortable crushing it in college, having a lighter work load and making NFL money. While that sounds awesome to most of us, the 61 year old Saban is an uber-competitor and he doesn't have that much time left if he still has an NFL itch to scratch.

#TallPeopleProblems

Tweet of the day (which I've never done before, but might do again) comes from former Syracuse center Fab Melo. Ol' Fabricio got called up from the D-League yesterday! Is it because he's averaging 10.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg and 3.8 bpg? Is it because on Dec. 26th he had 32 points, 9 boards and 9 blocks? Nope! It's because he ran into a door at a hotel and got a concussion. In order to be treated by the Celtics team doctors, he has to be on the active roster and thus he got called up. As for Melo:

If you stand under 7feet don't ask me how I did it.
— Fab Melo (@Fabpmelo) January 3, 2013

I don't even break 6 feet, so I won't ask. The world isn't designed for people his size so I'll cut him some slack. Hell, I hit my head on a car door last week. It happens. As long as he's okay, we can laugh about it and knowing Fab's light-hearted personality, he'll laugh right along with us.