Random Rumblings: April 28th

Why the tape is not enough

Tonight is the NFL Draft and arguably the two best players on tape won't be taken early. One won't be taken at all, not just in tonight's first round but at any point in the next three days. Why? Injuries.

Notre Dame's Jaylon Smith had the best tape of any prospect according to multiple analysts, yet he likely won't be taken at all. The defensive standout tore his knee ligaments in the Fiesta Bowl and he's at risk to never play football again because of nerve damage in his leg. UCLA's Myles Jack will play football next year. The question is how long after that as he has a degenerative issue in his knee.

Jack made interesting comments yesterday about his knee, saying that he doesn't know how long he'll be able to play. He said that anything over three years is average anyway, so who knows what the future holds for any player. While all of what he said is technically true, he did himself no favors in being honest. Teams don't spend first round picks for average.

The larger point here though is the justification for teams putting in massive amounts of homework into drafting players. They're about to make multimillion dollar investments into these guys, so every piece of information is useful.

What's interesting is the difference between the extensive homework teams do on rookies versus the quick decisions made on free agents, who cost significantly more money. The difference in the two situations? Leverage.

A player essentially has to play where he's drafted. In free agency, especially with the best players, the player has options. Instead of convincing teams to pick him, it's the teams convincing the player that they're the right place to be and that convincing is both literal in conversational terms and financial. The more you want a player, the more money you give him.

If Jack's knee holds up for a decade and he plays at a high level, people will look back and scream about how he was the best player on tape and lament not taking him. However if he's out of the league in three years, the team that did take that risk will be mocked for selecting a player with such an obvious downside. Teams can't win unless they're the one that was right. The narrative plays the result. The reality? The projection business is hard and every situation is different. Some decision makers have the license to take risks. Some don't. Some do have that right, but probably shouldn't.

The only sure thing is that if anyone tells you they know exactly how a player is going to turn out, they're telling you they can do the impossible.

Yeah, that was a foul

The Hornets took a 3-2 lead over the Heat last night in a controversial Game 5. There were some bad calls both ways, but a blatant missed foul late has everyone's attention. Goran Dragic shot a three from the corner which was blocked by Kemba Walker. Dwyane Wade got the rebound and attacked the basket where he was rudely greeted by Cody Zeller. The Hornets forward crashed into Wade and no whistle blew. It was a foul. There is no debate.

The verticality rule is explained in this video. It's pretty simple. If you jump straight up and down, it's not a foul. If you jump horizontally and make contact, it's a foul. This was a foul.

It's frustrating and disappointing that a game's outcome can so heavily be influenced by someone not on one of the teams so blatantly not doing their jobs correctly. Refereeing is really, really hard. It's a thankless job that only comes up when something is wrong. Guess that's why we're talking about it.

Some will talk about "human error" being a part of the game, but the only errors that should exist in an ideal world would be made by those affiliated with the teams. If a player misses an open shot, that's the game. If a coach makes a poor strategy decision, that's less fun than seeing the players decide the game, but that's sports. A referee? Give me the robots!

The rules are the rules. Enforce them. And to anyone who thinks that wasn't a foul, learn the rules. There is no intelligent argument here. Just learn the rule.

Tirico

Mike Tirico is leaving ESPN for NBC, which is a monumental move in the media world. Tirico has been at ESPN for 25 years and is the signature voice for the network. You probably knew all that. What you might not know is what it's like to have experience with Mike personally. That is just as big of a treat as it is listening to him call a game.

We've spent short amounts of time together on multiple occasions thanks to our mutual love for our alma mater. Mike is as proud of a Syracuse alum as there is and still dedicates a lot of time (and likely money) to the broadcast program.

Every time I see Mike, he makes me feel like an old friend that he's known for years. He has that special ability to make anyone feel important. He's invested in how you're doing. For someone who is a titan of our industry, he's incredibly human.

That humility is also what makes him so great on the air. He's smarter than all of us. Nobody knows more about more stuff than Mike. He covers NBA basketball, college basketball, NFL football, golf and tennis and I swear he knows each rulebook better than some of the officials in those sports. It's absolutely astounding. Yet, he delivers that information in a way that doesn't scream "look at me and how smart I am." He's just brilliant.

His role at NBC could eventually evolve into calling the NFL's premier weekly game (Sunday Night Football), the Super Bowl every three years and hosting the Olympics. He'll be calling the biggest events in sports and he's more than ready. I also expect him to be a part of the Kentucky Derby broadcast.

Back in 2012, we had Mike on my college radio show and I asked him about his bucket list. He said he'd gotten to do, or at least see, pretty much every event he could have dreamed of except two. One was the Indianapolis 500. The other was the Kentucky Derby. Both happen during the NBA playoffs, something Mike's giving up in the move from ESPN to NBC as the peacock network doesn't have any NBA rights and won't for the foreseeable future. The Indy 500 is on ABC, so he won't be able to call that although he could attend. The Derby however is on NBC, so expect him to have some role in that broadcast if his bucket list hasn't changed.

Reads of the Day:

Lions LB Deandre Levy with a powerful, necessary and potent piece on sexual assault prevention: http://www.theplayerstribune.com/deandre-levy-sexual-assault-awareness/

The MMQB's Andrew Brandt takes us inside an NFL war-room on draft day: http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/07/nfl-draft-war-rooms

ESPNLA's Arash Markazi on Doc Rivers, including some powerful quotes from his son and player Austin: http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/clippers/post/_/id/8096/doc-rivers-stays-strong-in-eye-of-clippers-storm

One Last Thing - Kevin Durant

Every Saturday at 4:50 pm, I share "One Last Thing" on Hoffman and Platt. It's an essay on a topic that caught my eye during the week. This week I chose to shine a unique light on Kevin Durant coming off one of the best months in NBA history. Listen to Hoffman and Platt Saturdays at 2 pm on 103.3 FM ESPN.

Towards the start of the season, I said the gap between LeBron James as the best player in the world and Kevin Durant as the 2nd best was wider than that between Durant and Paul George, who I consider the 3rd best player. I was wrong. I was really really wrong.

The evolution of Kevin Durant's game is staggering and James is having his relative worst year in a long time (read: still better than basically everyone, but not as good as previous years), in large part because he's conserving energy for May and June. But this is more about Durant. Many players get better, but the elite get better at what they're good at and add different facets. This is what has made James the player he is. Not only has he become a better shooter from all areas, but he's added a post-game and worked on his left hand and become the best defender in the league.

Durant's worked out with James in the off-seasons, but being by greatness doesn't guarantee it. Whatever the reason, Durant has added too, taking advantage of a thought impossible skill set and maybe maximizing it. I say maybe because the thought that he could be much better is absolutely terrifying.

People don't realize how big Kevin Durant is. At All-Star Weekend a few years back, he and Chris Bosh were walking down a hallway as the collective media who saw them suddenly realized Durant was taller. He's every bit of 6'11" playing the small forward position meaning he's always got the height advantage. This means, especially with his lightning quick release, that he's always shooting into clean airspace. He's got an unobstructed view of the hoop as he shoots. It's the same thing helps Dirk Nowitzki as a shooter. It's also going to help Andrew Wiggins when he gets into the NBA because he gets off the floor so quickly on his jumper.

Durant's always been a shooter though and what's made him make that leap is Durant's progression as a ballhandler. Big guys don't dribble because science says they shouldn't. The taller you are, the farther the ball has to travel from your hand to the floor. That's more space and time for a defender to steal the ball. This is why guards are always taught to keep a low dribble. Despite being nearly seven feet tall, Durant's arms are so long he can keep that low dribble. He's also worked and worked in the off-seasons to speed up his dribble, eliminating that time for defenders to swipe the ball.

The long arms also make his crossover possibly the most lethal move in the NBA. You want to reach? Go ahead. His arms are longer than yours and you can't reach that far. A defender assumes if a player extends the ball that far in one direction, he's going that way. And then Durant with one swipe comes back. The defender leans. Durant has space. He also has two or three more of his at least 30 points.

Or maybe he drives, gets into the lane and dishes to a wide open teammate. During his January for the ages, he averaged 6 assists per game. He's averaging almost eight rebounds per game on the season. He's very much a plus defender on one of the best defensive teams in the league. He's a complete player and this is the fun time to remind you that he's only 25.

Wednesday night, Durant and James dueled. It was the opposite of what many probably expected. James outscored Durant while Durant's team ran away with the win on Miami's home court. In the end, James is still the better player when it's time to turn it on, but the gap has closed considerably and Durant is absolutely the MVP so far this year.

If you didn't get a chance to watch him in the last month, you missed out. He's always up to the moment and whether it's dueling with Steph Curry or dancing 1-on-1 versus LeBron, Durant was full of them in January. His streak of twelve straight 30 point games ended Friday night in Brooklyn because he didn't play fourth quarter. If you've missed out though, it's not the end of the world. Again. He's only 25. This could just be a start.