Podcast: Super Bowl Recap

Alex Brewer and I break down the Super Bowl, Beyonce's performance and continue the QB's of the future discussion. It's like an hour of radio. Without the radio format. And commercials.

Super Bowl Preview

Chances are you'll be watching the Super Bowl today as over half of America does. It's the most watched show on television and from start to finish it is just that - a show. From the pre-game shows that have already been going for hours (it's 10 am cst as I'm typing) to the game, the big time commercials and the halftime spectacle, we're in for a great day.

I'm going to strictly focus on the game for this post although to say I'm excited for Beyonce at halftime is a major understatement. I said in my last podcast I would have a preview podcast with Kevin Brown. Then he decided to have a life, I worked a 9-hour day yesterday and decided to have a life after and as a result I'm typing my thoughts instead. Kevin and I will entertain you soon. I promise. For real this time. On to the game.

Sometimes teams feel like teams of destiny and that is the reason that many people are picking Baltimore to win. It's not hard to find that storyline as Ray Lewis takes the field for his last hurrah this evening. That feeling of destiny was enhanced last night when Jonathan Ogden was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Ogden was the Ravens first ever draft pick, followed later in the first round by Lewis. Seeing how John Harbaugh’s club got here, it certainly seems like they needed some divine intervention also known as John Fox's idiotic coaching strategy and one horrible play by Broncos safety Rahim Moore that kept them alive in the divisional round.

Over the past few years, there have been a number of teams that got hot late and went on to win the Super Bowl. Most notably the Giants, in both 2007-08 and last season, barely made it into the playoffs and then didn't lose again. The Packers in 2010-11 did the same thing. This year Baltimore is being described as the "hot" team, but I'm not quite sure where that came from which is why I won't be jumping onto their bandwagon.

The Ravens lost 4 of 5 games down the stretch of the regular season. Yes they've won their 3 playoff games, but it's not like they've been dominant. The Giants and Packers in their Super Bowl seasons all won at least 3 of 5 down the stretch before winning their 3 playoff games and eventually the Super Bowl. The 49ers had a bye and thus have only needed to win two games to get here, but they won 3 of 5 down the stretch so who’s really the hotter team?

The reason I'm picking the 49ers though is simply because I think they're better. They definitely have more talent. The Ravens roster is excellent. The 49ers is arguably the best in the league. The Ravens offensive line has been spectacular since a re-shuffle in the playoffs that included bringing Bryant McKinnie in to start at left tackle and sliding Michael Oher over to the right side. That said, I think Aldon Smith at the very least gets some pressure and likely ends his 5 game sack drought. The pressure could make Flacco make his first mistake of the playoffs (8 td's, 0 int's) and Baltimore will need to score to keep up with San Francisco.

The 49ers offensive attack is still evolving and unlike the Ravens who are likely to just line up and play, San Fran will undoubtedly have some new wrinkles out of the pistol formation to confuse the Ravens defense. I've watched a ton of coverage this week and no one seems to have a good answer as to how to defend this thing and there's good reason why. It’s damn near impossible.

Some very smart defensive people have suggested "hit the quarterback on every play" when discussing the read option part of San Fran’s attack. Small problem with that – the 49ers don't run the read option every play.

The first of many problems when defending the read option is you don't know when it's coming. A defensive player has instincts he goes on and the option plays against those instincts. If a defensive end is used to firing off the ball to get after the quarterback, the offensive lineman will let that player do just that. The quarterback, in this case Colin Kaepernick, will read that guy coming at him and hand the ball off to the running back who will run right by him into a giant hole for a giant gain. 

Now the defensive lineman adjusts. He doesn't come firing off the ball, staying disciplined to the dive handoff (up the middle). If he guesses right and the play is a read option, Kaepernick keeps the ball and you're now in a foot race with one of the fastest players in the league to the outside. Ask the Packers how that went.

It's worth noting at this point that all read options are not the same. Sometimes the quarterback goes inside with the keeper. Sometimes the inside read means a handoff to the running back. When the ball is at the mesh point (when it's in both the QB's and RB's hands), the defense has to determine who's going where as it's impossible to tell pre-snap. We got all that? Good. Because now that we've covered both of those guys, San Fran will add a pitch man as a 3rd option and you're totally screwed. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see one of the new wrinkles we haven't seen much of yet to be Frank Gore and LaMichael James in the backfield together. The 49ers also often use a lead blocker on this play that you have to deal with. Remember too that the defense has to read all of this as it happens in no time at all while the offensive players all know what they’re doing before the ball is snapped putting them at least a step ahead.

So now that we've run through all these iterations of one play here's the fun part: they might not run that play.

Just because Colin Kaepernick lines up in the pistol doesn't mean he's running the option. He could go with a straight drop back and throw. Remember that defensive lineman who's no longer shooting off the ball? He's getting no pressure. The laser armed QB has all day to throw. That's if you're lucky because if he drops straight back, your entire defense can read pass. If Kaepernick goes to the mesh point, pulls the ball and then drops back off play-action, you're really screwed. Chances are your safeties bit on the run fake and your poor linebacker assigned to cover Vernon Davis is now staring at the 85 on the back of his jersey as he runs down the field with his 4.3 speed. The safety that was supposed to help him deep is being run by too thanks to the play-action fake and all Kaepernick has to do is hit a wide open 6'3" target.

Hitting the quarterback is a great strategy to defend the read option. The problem is, you don't know it's coming. 

As for the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense has to be tired of hearing how they are vulnerable to the big play and how good Baltimore is at making them. I expect the Ravens to hit one or two deep shots, but the 49ers get a stop when it matters and my official prediction is 35-28 San Francisco over Baltimore.

One last note - if the game comes down to the kickers, the Ravens statistically have an enormous advantage. David Akers has been atrocious this year while Justin Tucker has barely missed. Tucker is an undrafted rookie and Akers is a 14-year veteran who played in a Super Bowl with the Eagles. That said, one has been money and one shtoinked one off the upright last week in Atlanta so hard he looked visibly shaken. If there's a chance for Jim Harbaugh to go for it on 4th down and avoid a kick, I'd expect him to do it.

Enjoy the game and there will be a review podcast early this week. Also free plug for my Z89 boys who will be live postgame on Call It a Wrap. The Super Bowl shows were easily two of my favorites while I was there so show Fitz and Corey some love by tuning in here.

NFL Playoffs - The Morning After

The Manning Dilemma(s)

John Fox is a good football coach. I got to see him up close in Carolina where his career took a natural arc. He took over a terrible team, got them to a Super Bowl in year 2 and back to the NFC title game two years later and then was up and down until he was really down in his final year and got fired. He is a good coach. Good coaches can have bad days and yesterday John Fox had as bad of a day as you can have.

Before breaking down the two monumental mistakes Fox made, let's say none of it should have mattered. All the Broncos had to do was knock a ball Joe Flacco threw 50-something yards in the air down to Jacoby Jones and they likely win. If they intercept it, they do win. Instead Rahim Moore made the worst safety play in the history of football and Jacoby Jones caught it and ran into the end zone likely thinking "how the (bleep) did that ball make it to me" and the Broncos wound up losing in double OT. It wasn't even like Moore was in bad position. Sure he let Jones behind him, but no throw was going to make it to Jones if Moore took the right angle. He just played the ball like someone with no depth perception. Worst play ever and to his credit after the game he said "it's all my fault" however it's not. Back to Fox.

3rd and 7, 2:00 minutes left, 4th quarter, ball on the Bronco 47, 35-28 Denver

When the Ravens turned it over to Peyton and co. with 3:12 to go, they had to think the game was over. All Peyton Manning had to do was get two first downs and he'd moved the ball with relative ease all game even if it didn't always lead to points. The Broncos picked up one first down on the 2nd play and the Ravens called time. Another run. Timeout, the Ravens last. Another run and the two minute warning came with a 3rd and 7 for the game. If the Broncos get a first down, the game is over. They can kneel. No way out for the Ravens. If Baltimore gets a stop, they get the ball back with a chance.

John Fox is a defensive coach with a defensive mindset. In the past he's had mediocre or worse quarterbacks and was able to have moderate success with them and take Jake Delhomme to a Super Bowl. John Fox now has Peyton Manning which is why his decision to run the ball on 3rd and 7 is as asinine as the play Moore made. Manning's at his best in the short to intermediate game and he has guys he's thrown to for years available in Brandon Stokely and Jacob Tamme not to mention a superior possession receiver in Eric Decker. Manning could have converted it in his sleep and even if he didn't, the "risk" you give the Ravens 30 extra seconds when they HAVE to score a touchdown. If you're only up a field goal, fine. The extra time means they can get extra yards close on a field goal. It's really hard to score a touchdown without a massive defensive breakdown when you have to have one because the defense can crowd the endzone. Not going for it is playing not to lose instead of playing to win. I'm always in favor of playing to win. Be the aggressor. Especially when you have a hall of famer under center.

1st and 10, :31 seconds left, 4th quarter, ball on the Bronco 19, 35-35 tie
Again Fox's defensive mindset strikes. With two timeouts and one of the greatest hurry up quarterbacks ever only needing a field goal, Fox decides to take a knee. The cold weather meant that the ball doesn't fly quite as well as it normally does but in the altitude, Matt Prater could have been good from 60 yards. If he misses, who cares. The field goal would have come as time expired. We all know he's clutch too after witnessing him close out so many of the "Tebow time" games last year too. Instead, Fox decides to not "risk" an interception or a blocked kick or any of the horrible things that could possibly happen when you snap the football on offense and play for overtime. Justice would have been the Ravens scoring on the opening possession and Peyton never seeing the ball. Instead they drug us all through an overtime plus of horrible football and then the Broncos lost.

Late in the overtime, Peyton Manning turned into Brett Favre. Or perhaps he turned into Peyton Manning in the playoffs. I'm as big of a Peyton Manning fan as you'll find. I'm fascinated with how he plays the position and have said for a number of years he's the best to ever do it in the regular season. However his playoff failures are real and they are spectacular. He's now 0-4 in playoff games played under 40 degree weather. He entered the game throwing 1 touchdown to 7 interceptions under such conditions and tacked on two more picks in this one including a tie for the worst I've ever seen in a big spot. Brett Favre's across the body blunders are well documented and none was bigger than the one he threw in the 2009 NFC Championship game. Peyton Manning doesn't make that throw though...except he did.

For as great as Manning is - and I still maintain he's the greatest regular season quarterback ever - it's rather clear the clutch gene went to his brother. Eli's greatest attribute is his ability to stay calm under pressure. Last night Peyton tried to do to much and it cost him. He got two special teams touchdowns and still lost. Facts are facts.

It's good to have options

Had Fox been aggressive, Moore not had the depth perception of one who's legally blind or Manning not turned into Favre I would have been perfect on my game 1 pick. I said Baltimore covers and Denver wins. Instead, I'm 0-4 combined spread/outright thanks to San Francisco housing Green Bay in a game I said the underdog Packers would win outright. It's pretty simple - I guessed inhuman Aaron Rodgers would show up and inhuman Colin Kaepernick wouldn't. I guessed wrong.

There are still many who hold on to the idea that a running quarterback can't win a Super Bowl because they haven't yet. I'm really very confused as to what these people are looking at. It's likely they are looking at history instead of the present incarnation of the running qb. In the past, guys like Eric Crouch won the Heisman in college and played safety before failing out of the pros. It's pretty simple. Those guys couldn't throw. The current incarnation can.

Colin Kaepernick not only has a cannon right arm, but he knows how to use it. The current incarnation of the running quarterback is a thrower first. He can, unlike his predecessors, stand in the pocket and make all the throws. He is accurate. He is decisive. I sound like Ron Jaworski. Because he can do all these things, his ability to run becomes a major factor and defenses are screwed.

You can't play everything. Last night the Packers played man coverage, meaning all the defenders were looking at their man and when no one was open, Kaepernick scrambled including his first touchdown run. You want to play him to run? He'll happily sit back and pick you apart with his arm. Then there is the option. You have to account for Frank Gore or whoever is at running back, or Kaepernick hands it off and that guy gashes you. Pay all your attention there and Kaepernick runs it for the longest post-season QB run in NFL history. We need more guys! Okay. Bring up some safeties and as soon as you sniff option, get up there. Wait till he takes two steps, pulls back and slings it over your head for six points through the air.

I'm not smart enough to tell you what the solution is in guarding this stuff, but I am smart enough to tell you it works. Coaches have to be careful not to get their qb's killed which is the major concern in Washington with Robert Griffin III's slight frame and propensity to get nicked up, but Kaepernick is 6'5". Sure you don't want him getting blasted, but the guy can take a hit. Same with Cam Newton, who is bigger bulkwise than Kaepernick and loves running over small db's. Despite his vertical lack of size, Russell Wilson is a stocky guy who can take a hit too. These types of guys aren't going anywhere.

If you don't have a mobile qb in the future, you're not eliminated from winning however the notion that having one means you can't go all the way is just plain dumb. It's the natural evolution of the athlete. Guys know they can't just rely on running all over so they learn to throw. They're smart. They can read defenses. They can do anything the statue-like qb's that have generally dominated up to this point in football history can do, but they can also run. It's not long till one of these guys wins a ring and when they do, I hope all people stuck in "you must be a pocket passer and cannot run land" will admit they were wrong. "Can't" and "haven't yet" are two very different things. Just ask Lebron.

#AboutDamnTime