Emptying the Notebook: Elite 8

What the hell just happened? Was last night real? The early games looked like they were both going to be blowouts and all of a sudden chaos down the stretch. Iowa State ran out of time. Tennessee they were out of time too. Until Michigan gave them time back. Inbound the ball and make a free throw or two and you win 100% guaranteed. They couldn’t inbound the ball! That game largely was sealed on a questionable call. Twitter freaked out. Twitter was wrong. That's all below.

Then we got to the night games.

Holy cow the night games! The only thing wrong with them is they were going on at the same time. They were different and both great for very different reasons. I thought Doug Gottlieb said it perfectly afterwards - the Virginia/Michigan State game was this technical clinic of back and forth between two senior laden teams with no real history, but both a desire to execute and win. The Louisville-Kentucky game was a little, to use Doug’s word, erratic at times (and that’s a great word for it) but the compete level in that game was off the charts. Those two teams played so hard. They don’t like each other. There is history. That was incredible.

Baylor vs Wisconsin

In hindsight, we should’ve seen the Baylor-Wisconsin result coming. In order to beat a zone you have to be patient. It’s one thing to go in with that mindset, but to sustain it for 40 minutes, possession in and possession out is a whole different story. That’s how Wisconsin plays every night. It wasn’t even a thought for them. Move the ball. Find a good shot. That’s how they would describe their play no matter what. Perfect matchup.

That’s only half the battle though. The other part is having versatile size and multiple decision makers as the talent to execute that plan. Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker are absolutely that. They’re tall guys who can shoot it from the outside, over the top of the zone and put the ball on the floor with the length and athleticism to finish over and around the length of Baylor.

The way to beat Wisconsin is to speed them up. It’s exactly what Oregon did in the first half. The pressured and forced a few turnovers. It led to 19 fast break points for the Ducks in the first half. The second half? They had none. Zero. Zilch. The game became a half-court game and Wisconsin came back and won.

Baylor never got the transition game started. The entire game was dominated by Wisconsin because it was played at their pace. It was a great run by the Bears. They didn’t have a shot. And we should’ve seen it coming.

Stanford vs Dayton

Didn't watch a ton of this game because by the time I got home, Dayton had already started pulling away. It was simple. Stanford's deep. Stanford got into foul trouble. Stanford was screwed. Dayton's a veteran team that executes. You've got to beat them. Florida will.

Florida vs UCLA

Experience can be really overrated. In the end there is a requisite level of talent, skill and know how required to do any task and there is no set amount of time that says someone will have those things. People learn and develop at different rates. So why does experience matter?

The more experience you have, the more situations you've seen and if you've encountered a situation before, you're more likely to react properly. That’s Florida. They’ve seen everything. You’re going to have to out-execute them with better talent and they haven’t played a team capable of doing that yet. Kentucky got close in the SEC Tournament final because they do have superior raw talent. 

Kentucky could beat them. Michigan State could beat them. But them getting to the Final Four was basically a lock when Syracuse and Kansas lost. Dayton’s had a great run. The most shocking result of the tournament would be the Gators going down this afternoon.

San Diego State vs Arizona

Aaron Gordon was more impactful Saturday than any other game I’ve seen him play this year. I’ll fully admit I haven’t watched as much as Arizona as I would’ve liked, but it wasn’t even close. He’s an incredibly raw offensive player who thrives in transition, but he did more than that Thursday night. He had some enormous offensive rebounds and some tough, contested rebounds on the defensive end. He hit some threes. But he still had some of those transition plays and those are huge because they give you energy. That alley-oop he threw down? You know the one! There may be ten guys in America that can go get that ball. That was ridiculous, and the energy of that play helped swing the game.

A huge reason it needed to be swung was because Nick Johnson was terrible for about 36 minutes. There's something to be said for a guy keeping his confidence despite struggle, but there's also a time to know your struggling and a stand still three from three feet behind the line isn't what you were looking for with plenty of time on the shot clock. Johnson gets credit for keeping the faith in himself and coming up huge down the stretch, but if they had lost some of the bad shots he took would have been a huge reason why. That's the ups and the downs of the sport when played by 18-22 year olds.

Tennessee vs Michigan

Let's just fast-forward to the end of this game because that's what mattered. Michigan was dominant early and Cuonzo Martin must've given one hell of a halftime speech.

Late in the game Michigan was trying to kill time so they ran 20 seconds off the shot clock before calling timeout and setting up a multiple action set. In the NBA they have 4 seconds. College? 15. The shot clock is too damn long. By the way - they didn’t get a shot off because of tremendous defense by Tennessee on both ends of the play. On the backend there was the terrific shot block after a pump fake, but the play was made by ball denial on Nik Stauskus. That wasn’t Michigan’s first option.

So Tennessee had life. Then Michigan gave them super life. Getting the ball inbounds shouldn’t be that hard. Sure, you’ve gotta fight but if you execute, you can get the ball in bounds to a person that’s not falling out of bounds!! That turnover is completely inexcusable. Albrecht's gotta do a better job of running the baseline and Lavert has to be under control. Those are the details of execution that separate in big games.

Tennessee gets the ball, calls an iso for Jarnell Stokes. He took one dribble into the lane and Jordan Morgan cut him off. You lower your shoulder, you get called for a charge. I’m the most anti-charge person on earth. I’d like a no-call there, but if a call was to be made it was a charge.

It's important to clarify that Morgan doesn't have to set his feet. In college, the primary defender is allowed to move laterally and as long he is in legal guarding position (Morgan was), he can take a charge. He did. He kinda flopped as he did, but he did. For all the bad calls and bad officiating, I'll save my outrage for another call.

With all that said - Lavert knocked the ball out clean and chased it down. We're probably yelling about nothing because it definitely wasn't a block. It was a charge or a no call and a no call meant a steal. It’s a chance to yell at refs, so people will. It’s a chance for people to point out NCAA officiating stinks. It does. That said, we’re probably making too much about nothing.

Iowa State vs UConn

Iowa state immediately tried to go inside and exploit their size advantage with Uconn's guards in the post. Syracuse used this strategy a couple of years ago with Dion Waiters, Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine and beat UConn with it twice. Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright were younger than. They learned. They also had help and UConn's size at every other position made life miserable for the Cyclones inside (except for Dustin Hogue, who gets some love below). 

Invoking Kemba comparisons aren’t done lightly, but Shabazz Napier is 100% earning that label. He’s been dominant so far and to do that as a sub 6 foot guard is ridiculous. It means you’re doing it with all skill. You’re not physically overpowering anyone at that size. It’s all speed, quickness, technical skill and having supreme confidence in what you’re doing. He stared down a 24 year old grown man. Deandre Kane is older than James Harden and he’s a grown man at 6 foot 4. Napier didn’t care. He balled out. He was a freshman for Kemba. As a senior, it’s him at the center of an equally as unprecedented run.

If Deandre Daniels plays well, there’s not many teams that can beat UConn. The junior has always had super potential, but had never developed. He had games here and there, but has been far more consistent as of late. He's not gonna drop 27 on a regular basis, but if he can play at a high level, UConn can hang with Michigan State tomorrow.

In March we talk about teams playing smart and playing together. It's worth mentioning this UConn group stayed after they were banned from the post-season (thanks to APR, which is one of the bigger crocks the NCAA pulls) so playing for each other is nothing new. That's all they had to play for. 

Last but not least, some love for Dustin Hogue. I covered his brother, Doug, at Syracuse where he was a linebacker on Doug Marrone's first Pinstripe Bowl winning team. The Hogues are from Yonkers and when I talked with Dustin in San Antonio after Iowa State's win over North Carolina, he couldn't wait to go home. For a New York City kid, there's nothing like playing in Madison Square Garden and he left every bit of his heart and soul on the Garden floor. MSG brings out the best and that was certainly his best, albeit in a losing effort and he got to do it in his own backyard in front of family and friends. Pretty cool.

Louisville vs Kentucky

12:31 in the 2nd half and Louisville starts to go on a run. John Calipari calls timeout. When Louisville gets going, no one can stop them, nevertheless a team that's at times mentally fragile. UK responded with a run.

This happened a few times throughout the game, which again confirmed what most in basketball know and those that just think he's a good recruiter refuse to acknowledge. Cal can flat out coach. From modifying his x's and o's to the new talent he brings in each year to having a great pulse for his players, Cal can flat out coach. This year, it took a lot longer for him to find that pulse but he's seemed to figure it out.

That allows him to unlock the immense talent he does bring in, which separates Kentucky from other schools. They just have so many guys. Willie Caulie-Stein leaves with an injury? Fine. Dakari Johnson was playing like a man possessed. He was all over the offensive glass. He's also a legit NBA prospect coming off their bench.

Another step in Kentucky's sudden discovery that they're good is the evolution of Julius Randle. His vision is terrific. I noticed it in the Baylor game at AT&T Stadium early in the year. Last night that vision turned into production as he had the assist on Andrew Harrison's game winner. He’s also evolved defensively. Cal could barely play him at the beginning of the year because he was so putrid against the pick and roll. Last night, Randle had two perfect defensive possessions, one of which he got called for a bogus foul and the other in which he challenged Russ Smith’s game-tying attempt, which fell short because he out to arc it over the freshman’s outstretched arm.

Last few notes:

• For the 2nd straight game, UK's freshman acted like anything but down the stretch. They were total money from the free throw line including two from Randle late.
• That was Rick Pitino's first ever loss in the Sweet 16. He's been coaching for 30+ years at three different schools. That's absurd.
• Since Calipari got to UK, he's owned Pitino. They've met in the tournament twice including last night. The other was the 2012 National Championship game.
• I still don't know what to make of Kentucky, but this number makes me belive they're legit. Vegas knows things. UK was 30-1 to win it all on March 10th. They're now 5-1.

Virginia vs Michigan State

This game is the one high school coaches will show their teams. It was a clinic. Great defense forced good execution if you wanted a good shot and there weren't a ton to be had. This game came down to the end though and a decision Tom Izzo made that I loved.

Adreian Payne made a mistake. The senior had a look at a three and he decided to give it up trying to get a better shot. It was too late in the shot clock. Virginia scrambled perfectly and forced a turnover and hit a three to tie the game on the ensuing possession. Timeout Michigan State.

Izzo lit into Payne. When every possession matters, you can't pass up a good shot. He then drew up a play for him and he responded by draining a three pointer. The next possession he threw a lob to Brandon Dawson. He later knocked down two free throws. Payne's an NBA player and could've easily left after last year. He's back to win it.

The Zebras vs The World 

There were some awful calls in the last two days. Luckily most of them didn't wind up changing the outcomes of games but there was a possibility of one in nearly every game. I discussed the charge call in Michigan/Tennessee already. There as a no-call at the end of Michigan State/Virginia that UVA fans didn't like. Michigan State's player pushed off, but it was after a Virginia hold. I'm fine with the no call. If they call the first foul, the second one never happens.

Kentucky would've had a real gripe if they lost as Julius Randle had a textbook block called a foul. Verticality needs to be given to bigs. Randle went straight up. If an offensive player jumps into you, that's on him.

My biggest gripe however was replay. To me, replay is designed to fix the obvious. If you can't tell whether a call was right or not, stay with the original. If it's obvious it needs to change, change it. If a ball goes out of bounds and you can't tell who it was out on, call it a jump ball. The end of these games are disastrous. Referees are taking way too long to look at replays where there's either an obvious call or obviously no chance of making a determination. If you can get it right, get it right. If you discover you're not going to be able to do anything, just walk away and get back to the game. Flow and rhythm matter in basketball. Quite destroying it.

SMU in the NIT

If you are in the Dallas area and weren’t at Moody Coliseum Wednesday night, you missed out. I’ve been to a lot of games in a lot of places. Allen Fieldhouse is in a galaxy by itself. Outside of that place, I’ve never been in a place better than Moody on Wednesday. Some equal. None better. Nick Russell had an enormous play in that game and the SMU guard joined me on ESPN Dallas College Gameday.

Emptying the March Madness Notebook

As I watched games on TV and in person last week in San Antonio, I kept notes on things far and wide. There were x's and o's notes. There were notes on players, teams and coaches. There were notes (and pictures!) about mascots. This week has been nuts, but before we get to games tonight, it's time to empty the notebook.

Sights and Sounds

After the round of 64, I caught up with two winning point guards: Baylor's Kenny Cherry and Creighton's Austin Chatman. They faced off in the round of 32, a huge Baylor win. After that game I spent a few minutes with Baylor's Cory Jefferson.

When I took this picture, I didn't realize how good it was. It was just a quick snap. However I accidentally framed the picture with the Canadian flag in the top corner. Melvin Ejim is Canadian. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

Seriously. What the hell is this? This is not okay. (It's Providence's mascot. It shouldn't be.)

Teams no longer with us

I was sitting with my friend and fellow Syracuse alum Mike Meltser Sunday night when I decided to finally run the numbers I've been curious about. I knew Trevor Cooney was shooting about 31% in conference. That's awful, but it gets worse.

In the Notre Dame game, Cooney went 9-12 from three. If you take out that game, Trevor Cooney shot 26% in conference. Most players who shoot that much aren't allowed by their coaches to shoot from deep. Syracuse's offense was designed for Cooney to shoot threes. I'm not saying that's a mistake as Cooney's clearly a capable shooter, however this is two years in a row in which he lost his shot and never really got it back. This above all else is why Syracuse is home.

Going after Aaron Craft off the dribble was a deathwish for four years. He had the ability to dominate a game without scoring like few guards we've seen in the last decade of college basketball. Craft has some of the best hands I've ever seen and getting passed him was like trying to run around the Great Wall of China. So naturally his career ended as someone got a step on him. A week later, I still can't believe it happened. Or as my friend Gary Parrish put it:

Aaron Craft’s college career ends with him getting beat off the dribble? Cruel.
— Gary Parrish (@GaryParrishCBS) March 20, 2014

It's hard to judge how well the committee did as the tournament plays out because they aren't doing a predictive exercise. They're doing a reactive exercise to what's happened during the season. That said, BYU getting smoked by Oregon proved they didn't belong. SMU did, but getting three more games at Moody Coliseum hasn't been so bad for the Mustangs.

What a weird situation in the Nebraska-Baylor game. The officiating, led by the notroriously horrific Karl Hess, was horrific. How Miles got thrown out was a total joke, which I’ll explain in a minute. But I’m more concerned conceptually with Miles first technical. It's really hard and a very fine line but Tim Miles was ahead of his team in being hacked off about the refs. That’s bad. It gives your team an excuse. As a coach, you’ve got to tell your guys to play through it. I talked with Kenny Cherry after the game and he said it’s 100% something they talked about once they realized how tight the whistle was. It showed. You’ve gotta stand up for your guys, but you can’t get lost in the officiating like Miles did. His guys followed. They got whacked.
When in doubt late in games, always foul and extend the game. It is absolutely brutal for the fans, but until there’s a rule change where that’s no longer the strategy down the stretch, fouling early is the right play. St. Louis was toast. They fouled. NC State missed a ton of free throws. They get back in the game. Win it in overtime. Especially when it’s 1-and-1. That’s real pressure.

Every detail matters in March. I still don't know why TJ Warren is in the game with 4 fouls when NC State had to foul. He fouled out. The Wolfpack had to try and complete the comeback without the ACC Player of the Year. That's poor coaching in my eyes.

Nobody is better out of timeouts than Bill Self. He steals points on dunks and layups, many of them lobs.  I can think of at least 3 plays yesterday and I was barely watching until the last 10 minutes. They resulted in 7 points. Kansas won by 11.

I was so lucky to be in San Antonio Friday night. I had a courtside seat to what Bryce Cotton did and Bryce Cotton deserved better. At least a chance to fling one from half court. He was the only reason they had a chance for the majority of that game and the game basically ended with the ball going off his hands out of bounds. Most of the time sports are awesome, fair and karma seems to exist. None of that happened with Cotton.

If you missed Luke Winn's piece on Wichita State in Sports Illustrated, I highly recommend it. Link here.

NBA Draft Implications

Duke's Jabari Parker told Andy Katz that his career is incomplete, and that could affect decision on whether to return for sophomore season. It’s easy to say that because it’s true, but it probably won't affect it enough to come back when he’s a lock to be a top 3 pick.
That said, don't be surprised when one player does exactly that. I know for a fact that Embiid saying he hasn't made up his mind isn't lip service because he's telling people privately he hasn't made up his mind. Embiid doesn't feel ready to leave school. College is about more than just your development in sport and Embiid realizes that. He's barely spent any time in the United States and he's said all year he just doesn't feel ready to be on his own out of the college structure. It's very similar to what Marcus Smart felt last year.
That was a bad end for Andrew Wiggins but don't overreact to it. He played all year with mediocre guards and someone getting you the ball matters. They were particularly brutal Sunday outside of Connor Frankamp hitting shots to keep KU alive. That said, the more concerning number is six, not four. Six is the number of shots he took. Four is the number of points he scored. Be more assertive. Then again that goes back in part to the guards. Wiggins defensive level is outrageous for a college freshman. That, plus a high amount of offensive raw skill is why he's a top 3 pick.
He also cares. He took every ounce of blame after that loss. That matters to me too. To me, he's a guy who's very coachable and can learn. He wanted to get better. He did. My only concern with Wiggins makeup is his shyness. The pressure is going to be there. He's gotta be able to deal with it. That said, it's a minor concern. He turned 19 a month ago. He's still so young. He'll grow up and mature and likely will be fine.

Tyler Ennis leaving Syracuse isn't surprising at all. Ennis's stock skyrocketed this year as he was unimaginably good in clutch situations through 25 games. The miracle shot against Pitt was a fun highlight, but he didn't turn the ball over in a clutch spot through 25 games. That's unreal for a freshman. Yes, he struggled in a few games late but that level wasn't sustainable. His appeal to NBA scouts is in his control. He understand pace. He has a deft touch around the rim. His game isn't reliant on athleticism, meaning the jump in athleticism from college to the NBA isn't the end of his effectiveness. He'll be in the lottery, perhaps even the top 10.
In Summary
I asked Dana O'Neill Saturday if that was the best first two days of the tournament we've ever seen. She said she couldn't think of a start of a tournament that was better. Then we got more amazing games Saturday and Sunday. It all starts up again tonight. All hail March and all its madness.

Kentucky vs Wichita State - Where Narratives Went To Die

As Duke, Kansas and Syracuse fell the narrative was growing. The 2012 Kentucky team led by freshmen Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was the exception, not the rule. You couldn't win with one-and-done players. Even that team had a senior leader in Darius Miller. Carmelo Anthony had veterans around him in 2003 too. It just can't be done.

Down went Jabari Parker and Duke. Down went Andrew Wiggins and Kansas.

Julius Randle was next. His Kentucky squad was matched up against a veteran Wichita State team that hadn't lost since they took one too many punches from Louisville in last year's Final Four.

Wichita State pulled ahead early, executing their gameplan to perfection. I, and many others, thought they would win. Kentucky hadn't played smart basketball all year. Kentucky hadn't played together all year. They had 10 good minutes against Florida in the SEC Championship and that's it.

They picked a pretty good time to start. The Harrison twins played their best game all season. Randle was dominant in stretches. The game was played at a level rarely seen in college hoops. Pressure? Instead of folding, both teams rose. Cleanthony Early couldn't miss. The Kentucky freshmen were money from the free throw line down the stretch.

With all that said, the narrative had a chance to play out. The pressure to execute is never greater than a last second inbounds play. As Luke Winn from Sports Illustrated revealed in this brilliant piece, the play was called "Havlicek" and the number one option was a lob to Cleanthony Early.

Here is a freeze frame as the action starts. Early is the player at the most bottom of the screen.

Things that would inhibit a lob -

1) A defender at the rim

2) A defender inhibiting Early so that he wouldn't have a clear path to the rim

3) Ball pressure making a lob difficult

4) Early getting caught up in the screening action

5) Aliens from outer space

None of these things happened.

James Young (#1 in blue) was guarding Early. He was lost. Willie Caulie-Stein (#15 in blue) is one of the best rim protectors in the country. He had no idea someone was sneaking behind him and it looked like protecting the rim wasn't his assignment. He had a man he was supposed to stick with. It appeared as if no one had the specific job of protecting the rim.

As it played out, Early planted his right foot at the very moment captured above and faded to the wing, out of the play. I would love to ask him or Gregg Marshall what he was reading, because watching the video and looking at the freeze frame above, it seems like he made the wrong read. The pass didn't even have to be perfect. Any where where Early could catch it leads to a layup or dunk. Instead he bailed.

Instead Kentucky shut off the 2nd option, Ron Baker (#31 in white) curling to the corner and Wichita State was left with their 3rd option. Fred Van Vleet came to the top of the key, took one rhythm dribble to his right and launched a 25 footer that missed as time expired. Game over.

As the horn sounded, the narrative died.

Talented freshmen can beat an experienced team that plays together. The key is them actually playing together. That's why Kentucky won in 2012. It's the same reason Louisville won last year. It's the same reason any team wins any year.

There is no new narrative.

Talent will always compete. Execution will always matter. When talent executes, it will win.

Sunday we didn't see talent versus execution. We saw Wichita State's talent executing as they had all year versus Kentucky's talent executing like they hadn't all year. The clock ran out while Kentucky had two more points.

A single game cannot define a season. It can end it. Wichita State is one of the ten best teams in the country and probably the best five. Their problem on Sunday is they ran into another one who finally played like it.

Numbers Never Lie - Combine Edition

Yesterday people were freaking out about measurement day for the quarterbacks at the NFL combine. Loudest were the people like Ian who wanted to shame anyone who read anything into the numbers that spent half the day on our television screens. "Oh my god he's not six feet, you can't draft him!" he screamed time and again. I don't think anyone actually said that and if they did they don't have a clue in the world about football. Ian's just exaggerating for dramatic effect the real group who think that's Jonathan Football's height is a concern as well as Teddy Bridgewater. Considering that group includes Bill Polian and other really smart football people, I'm willing to listen. 

Nobody's saying that you shouldn't draft these guys. They've proven their worth on the field over the course of seasons. However these measurables help provide context to some questions teams might have. 

The height thing with Manziel is far more about size and durability than being able to see over an offensive line or having balls batted down due to his style of play. He's just not a big guy and he runs around a ton and is gonna take a lot of hits. If he came in at 6'2 and a solid weight, you're not as concerned because he'd at least be bigger than some of the guys hitting him. He's not. He's not close. Everyone on the field is bigger than him making every hit that much riskier and risk is a word you want to minimize with your franchise quarterback if you can help it.  

As for the hand size issue, it again provides context. Manziel's big hands help him with his style of play. You feel better about him running around because his grip on the ball will be better. He's less likely to fumble or have the ball slip when throwing on the run. 

Meanwhile Bridgewater has small hands raising concerns about ball security and throwing in bad weather. If you go back and see that his worst games were in cold or inclimate weather, than having the context of hand size tells you that probably wasn't an anamoly and there won't be much he can do about it. Context matters. The numbers aren't the end all be all. 

This is what drives me absolutely bananas about our current sports culture. We focus on exceptions not rules. If none of this stuff was a concern, we wouldn't be talking about it. But there's a reason Drew Brees and Russell Wilson are the exceptions. Colin Kaepernick has small hands but can rip it. He's the exception. No one's saying it can't be done, but when you're making evaluations of numbers you take out the outliers. Instead of looking at Russell Wilson and saying "look a short guy did it" you should look at the things he has in common with other winning quarterbacks and try to find those. You just realize some of his outlying characteristics aren't inhibitors. 

And that's why Bridgewater and Manziel are just fine. Bridgewater is an exceptional decision maker who has adequate arm strength and good mobility. Manziel's competitive fire burns bright and his improvisational skills are the best most evaluators have ever seen. They're gonna be top 10 picks. And they should be. But if a part of the underwear Olympics didn't have a purpose, they wouldn't have it. There's a reason they do this stuff. We've just gotta be smart enough to figure out why.